Mr. Poon Panichphiboon, Money Market Strategist, Capital Market BankKrung Thai revealed that bahtopened this morning (January 4) at 34.41 baht per dollar “appreciating slightly” from the previous day’s close at 34.44 baht per dollar, looking framedbah todayit should be at the level of 34.30-34.50 baht per dollar
forbaht trend It was seen that the slight appreciation of the baht last night Driven by the flow of Gold Profit transactions This has eased the pressure of the dollar’s appreciation.
However, in the short term, the baht could get support on the upside boosted by hopes of a recovery in the tourism sector. by the return of Chinese tourists This is reflected through the perspective of foreign players who still want to increase their USDTHB short positions (see the appreciation of the baht).
Including net purchases of Thai stocks, notablyTo shareOn the subject of Reopening, the baht has the possibility of strengthening to test the support in the 34.25-34.30 area. baht per dollar (The baht strengthened to test the zone the previous day. After appreciating, it fell to 34.50 baht per dollar. according to our assessment)
However, caution should be exercised against potential volatility. If the market closes to more risk and encourages the dollar to continue appreciating, but we think if the dollar appreciates it might not put pressure on the baht to depreciate too much, easily crossing the resistance zone around 34.50-34.60 baht per dollar
Also, the movement ofbahtThe recent high volatility reflects the need for more diversified hedging instruments. let us advise Entrepreneurs should use a more diversified exchange rate hedging strategy. In particular the use of options, which will increase the efficiency of hedging during the period of high market volatility.
US financial market Still in a condition of risk aversion (Risk-Off) amid concerns about the slowdown of the US economy. and fears about the prospect of a Fed rate hike. (Which market players will wait to keep tabs on the latest Fed meeting minutes and US labor market data report), causing the S&P500 to close at -0.40%. Still under pressure from a drop in big stocks such as Tesla -12% after auto shipments grew less than expected and Apple -3.7% on concerns about the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak in China on the production. Including the declining trend in iPhone demand.
As regards European equities, the STOXX600 index recorded a rise of 1.22%, supported by the increase in healthcare sector stocks (Novo Nordisk +2.8%, Novartis +2.7%) due to fears about the slowdown of the global economy. Market participants are looking for defensive stocks like Healthcare, but European equities have come under pressure from a sharp decline in energy stocks (Equinor -5.6%, TotalEnergies -1.7%) following a decline in crude oil due to fears about the spread of COVID-19 in China, including the appreciation of the dollar
in the foreign exchange market The dollar strengthened against the main currencies. after the US financial market Still closed. And market participants are standing by to keep an eye on the direction of the Fed’s monetary policy. Through the minutes of the last Fed meeting and the latest report on US labor market data, the dollar index (DXY ) rose again close to 104.5 points. But market hedging and the yield on the US 10-year bond, which remained close to 3.76%, helped gold prices (COMEX gold contract for delivery in February) to rise and hover near the 3 level .76%. And there are times when gold prices rally near the resistance zone around $1,850 an ounce. makes us watch Some market players can gradually make profits on gold, and the flow of such transactions contributes to the appreciation of the baht. Even if the dollar is stronger.
For today, market players will be waiting for important economic data reports from the US. Both the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (Manufacturing PMI) in December and Jolts Job Openings in November. that the market estimates US Economic Outlook and a slowdown in the global economy could lead to a continued contraction of economic activity in the manufacturing sector, reflected in the manufacturing PMI which will fall to 48.5 points (index is below 50 points means contraction)
Additionally, the impact of the economic slowdown will lead many companies to adjust their employment plans, causing job vacancies to continue to decline to 10 million positions from a previous high of 11.9 million. getting less tight. But overall it’s still strong.
