25 Nov 2023 at 22:36
Azerbaijan indicated this week that it is open to peace talks with neighboring Armenia. The timing of the guidance is not coincidental. Last week marked exactly two months since Azerbaijan began the offensive that definitively took control of the Nagorno-Karabakh region. That’s how it stands.
Armenia and Azerbaijan were fighting each other for more than thirty years over Nagorno-Karabakh, an area about the size of the province of South Holland. The region lies almost entirely within the borders of Azerbaijan, but the population was largely ethnic Armenian. After Azerbaijan’s military operation last September, almost the entire population fled to Armenia.
“The short but fierce battle meant the end of the Nagorno-Karabakh region as we know it,” analyst Zaur Shiriyev of the International Crisis Group think tank told NU.nl in September. He then expected that Nagorno-Karabakh would come under the direct authority of Azerbaijan. That same month, the local government announced that Nagorno-Karabakh will cease to exist on January 1, 2024.
“Hardly anything happens in Nagorno-Karabakh anymore,” Shiriyev told NU.nl last week. “It is estimated that there are fewer than a hundred Armenians left in the area. A UN mission has visited twice, but the region is no longer on the international radar.”
Azerbaijan’s strongman Ilham Aliyev organized another victory parade for his troops in Nagorno-Karabakh earlier this month. Photo: Getty Images / Azerbaijani Presidency / Handout
‘Keep Washington and Moscow out’
Shiriyev sees Azerbaijan’s invitation for peace talks as a sign that the country wants to maintain control. “Azerbaijan does not trust Western incentives for peace talks. They see too many threats and too few promises. Azerbaijan would like to see more emphasis on issues such as investments and reconstruction.”
Aid from the United States in particular is perceived by Azerbaijan as too meddlesome, says Shiriyev. The government is also concerned that there is legislation in force in the US that does not allow direct aid to the government of Azerbaijan.
“Azerbaijan still seems to have confidence in Brussels, but then foreign ministers and other senior officials must participate in peace talks,” Shiriyev continues. “Washington and Moscow seem to want to keep Azerbaijan out.”
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Hundreds of refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh at the Armenian border
Beeld: Getty Images / Azerbaijani Presidency / Handout
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2023-11-25 21:36:00
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