A Prevalent Fear: Armenia’s Growing Unease with Azerbaijan
Increase in Tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan
By Grigor Atanesian & Tim Whewell, BBC World Service
Published: 4 hours ago
Crisis looms as Armenia and Azerbaijan face increasing disagreements after the war in Nagorno-Karabakh last September. The conflict resulted in more than 100,000 ethnic Armenians fleeing their homes, fearing the violence carried out by Azerbaijani troops. As her family made the arduous and harrowing journey to escape the conflict, Nina Shahverdyan vividly recalls the extreme suffering she and her loved ones encountered. The trauma inflicted upon the population, including heart attacks and the deaths of the elderly and vulnerable, highlights the distress experienced by these people while fleeing the conflict zone.
Azerbaijan’s military swiftly regained control of the territories that were previously under Armenian control throughout the war. Despite Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s recent claims about his country’s desire for a closer and more peaceful relationship with Armenia, Armenians remain skeptical of his intentions. Aliyev’s previous statements, such as proclaiming Armenia as “Western Azerbaijan,” only intensify Armenian fears of a potential Azerbaijani invasion. Although Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has indicated a willingness to restore a peaceful atmosphere by returning four border villages, anxiety lingers due to Azerbaijan’s demand for a free railroad corridor through Armenian territory. Moreover, Aliyev has threatened to seize the corridor by force if agreements cannot be reached.
Growing Insecurity and Rising Distrust
The brewing conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan spills beyond Nagorno-Karabakh, with skirmishes along Armenia’s recognized border pre-war. Cities deep inside Armenian territory were subjected to shelling, and Azerbaijani forces still occupy Armenian lands. Armenians perceive national security and border issues as the most pressing problems, exacerbated by fading faith in Russia’s support. Russia, traditionally considered Armenia’s defense guarantor, remained neutral during the most recent conflict with Azerbaijan and refrained from intervening. In addition, Russia has failed to deliver weapons that Armenia had previously purchased, leading Armenians to question Russia’s reliability. Consequently, Armenia has sought to establish international alliances, improving military collaboration with the US and securing weapons purchases from France.
Armenia’s Quest for Diversification
Armenia’s aspirations to diversify its foreign policy have seen the nation mulling EU membership and embracing deeper ties with the European Parliament. While Armenian authorities have emphasized their intentions to diversify rather than sever ties with Russia, warnings from Russia and Azerbaijan loom large, with both countries perceiving Armenia’s pursuits as threats to their interests. Russia’s foreign ministry claims that Armenia’s actions serve as a Western tool aimed at achieving destabilization. Interestingly, the influx of tens of thousands of Russians into Armenia suggests a somewhat more complex relationship between the two nations.
The Future of Peace in the South Caucasus
Although Armenia and Azerbaijan have established a border delimitation commission, criticisms and concerns have emerged. Armenia’s agreement to return four Azerbaijani villages situated on the northern border, while a bid for peace, has left the residents of Armenian border villages apprehensive about potential attacks and isolation from the rest of the country. Prime Minister Pashinyan’s attempts to allay their fears may not alleviate their concerns fully. Experts on the region are skeptical about the likelihood of a true and lasting peace. Despite attempts to establish warmer relations, the deep-rooted animosity and tensions between the two nations remain significant factors likely to prolong the current strained atmosphere.
