Various calculation models and maps appear online that would show extreme cold. For example, someone writes on Twitter: “Sinterklaas is just a cold taste. The real blow to the freezer may follow later, under the direction of Greenland.”
The official KNMI plume also shows that the temperature on the weekend of December 10 can go down to -5 degrees. Weather fanatics predict that the following weekend could be much colder. “A growing possibility of freezing rain and snow. Like the winter of 1977,” someone writes.
Meteorologist Martijn Dorrestein of Buienradar also uses the KNMI plume. “You’d actually have to view it such that each line in that plume has a 2% chance. So there’s a 2% chance of those down outliers, but so is the 15-degree outlier.”
Extreme temperatures were also forecast last summer. Then came the record 45 degree heat. Dorrestein then explained how meteorologists use different weather patterns:
Dorrestein is not expecting the dreaded freezing cold just yet. “It could be a bit freezing cold locally tonight, but then it will be just below freezing. Until Saturday it will definitely stay above 0 degrees during the day. At night there is a chance of light frosts, with up to 3 degrees below 0.”
Snow with Sinterklaas?
During the Sinterklaas weekend there is the possibility of frosts, especially at night, but according to Dorrestein “nothing extreme”. “It will snow in Germany, so there is a possibility that there will be some snow here and there as well.”
And what about the long term? The more you look into the plume, the more unreliable it becomes. This is also why meteorologists prefer not to give a forecast more than a week in advance.
“For now, it looks like it’s going to be a little colder than average. That in itself is quite special, because we’re often just above average, but that extreme cold? It really seems a bit over the top.”