Analysts and experts believe in lower energy prices in 2023. But that’s not all.
The average price for a kilowatt-hour of electricity in Southern Norway in 2022 ended at about 2 crowns for the whole year. That’s nearly three times that of the record year 2021 and 20 times that of 2020.
Daily and hourly prices have been significantly higher in periods, but an average price of NOK 2 per kilowatt hour is at a level we have never been close to before in Norway.
– We’ve never been close to these prices before. Even last year, the yearly average was way above normal. Now that figure has tripled, electrical analyst Tor Reier Lilleholt of the firm Volue Insight told NTB just before the new year.
Read also: Your electricity subsidy for December is ready – now you get paid for your electricity usage
I The current VG special you can follow the prices by the hour. We use data from the Nordpool Power Exchange and our own calculations to calculate the electricity subsidy. So these are not official figures.
War, gas and foreign cables
The war in Ukraine, the Russian limitation of gas supplies to Europe, as well as foreign cables connecting Norway to the European electricity market, are pointed to as the main explanations behind the price explosion.
Next year, experts predict that electricity prices in southern Norway will be lower than this year. Looking at market expectations, the average price will be around NOK 1.5 per kWh in 2023 in the south.
More expensive in the north
But Lilleholt believes in even lower prices than that.
– We think the average price for 2023 will be around NOK 1.1 per kWh in Southern Norway. There’s more water in the tanks now, he tells NTB.
But in Northern Norway, people probably need to brace themselves for higher electricity prices.
– In the north, they have used up some of their resources in warehouses and have sent some electricity for export. Nor have there been extreme amounts of snow yet, says the electricity expert.
Few crowns this winter
– The market probably believes prices in southern Norway throughout the winter by a couple of kroner, maybe a little less, says Marius Holm Rennesund, power analyst at Thema who advises The class struggle.
He points to full water tanks after heavy rains and mild weather as an explanation for the expected price level. At the same time, Europeans have reduced their gas consumption, gas reserves are almost exhausted and have managed to import large quantities of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Expect the same prices as this year
Sigbjørn Seland, lead analyst at Storm Geo Nena, and Ole Hvalbye, commodities analyst at investment bank SEB, have the same Rennesund analysis:
– Slightly lower prices, but still expensive and far from the prices Norwegians are used to
Tore Guldbrandsøy, head of Rystad Energy’s Brussels office, is less optimistic.
– You have to be prepared to see prices in 2023 at a similar level to the previous year, both for gas and electricity, he tells Klassekampen.
