[Epoch Times, 15 ottobre 2022](Full report by Lin Yan, Epoch Times reporter) The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China opened on Sunday (October 16). Chinese President Xi Jinping gave a speech, no longer emphasizing economic development as a central task. More and more analysts are worried about the futureThe Chinese economyFrustrated because they believe it is unlikely that Xi will begin to correct the economic course after the 20th Party Congress.
According to Reuters, compared to the 19th National Congress, Xi Jinping’s speech at the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China has a notable change, undermining economic development and economic reform. Chen Zhiwu, a professor of finance at the University of Hong Kong, said: “From the 14th to the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, it is clearly stated that economic development is the central task of the party. This time there is no is such a claim, but the focus is on “complete” and “complete” development. “
Bloomberg columnist Matthew Brooker wrote that much speculation has focused on the possibility of a correction in the economic course after this month’s 20th Party Congress, but that possibility appears to be getting smaller and smaller.
In theory, after Xi consolidates power for a third term, he will be more likely to soften some of his signature campaigns and return to the pragmatism that has been very beneficial to China, Brook said. As it turns out, that hope may be low.
“Even if a liberal economic candidate like Vice Premier Hu Chunhua becomes Prime Minister, there is no reason to believe that Xi Jinping will be more moderate,” he wrote.
In the past, the economy was run by the Communist Party’s second-in-command, the Premier of the State Council, but as Xi Jinping concentrated the power to design economic policy in his hands, the prime minister’s role was reduced to that of executive economic policy.
Nikkei Asia columnist Katsusuji Nakazawa also cited sources saying Hu Chunhua could be the new prime minister, but as Xi Jinping controls power, even if Hu Chunhua becomes prime minister,The Chinese economyPolicies can also become more conservative.
At the same time, Xi Jinping agreed to let Hu Chunhua be the prime minister on the premise that the new Standing Committee member being replaced by the Politburo must be his person. In that case, Hu Chunhua can become a prime minister with only a short breath, because he is surrounded by Xi Jinping’s cronies.
Fraser Howie, co-author of “Red Capitalism,” a denunciation of the Communist Party’s top leaders, said that people like Premier Li Keqiang and Xi Jinping’s senior adviser Liu He are economically liberal, but they don’t have a real impact.
On the possibility of a future change in China’s economic policy, Howie said: “I don’t see a bright side.”
The political path is blocked and the senior reform officials are about to resign
Faced with China’s economic woes, Beijing’s politicians are hoping to find a way to address the continuing decline in house prices and reduce the damage of Xi Jinping’s COVID-19 zero policy.
But with “China’s economic recovery constrained by its budget,” Nicholas Borst, a former San Francisco Fed analyst, said there are now signs that Beijing has little to do with the economy. Post is now vice president of investment advisory firm Seafarer Capital Partners.
He told the Financial Times that Beijing’s current “cautious” policies were “unlikely” to significantly improve the liquidity crisis faced by private property developers and did not expect a significant recovery in ownership in the medium term.
“The outlook for the team of senior officials responsible for managing the economy and finance is not good,” Roberts cautioned.
He cited that Liu He, who is seen as a reformer, will retire and may be replaced by an official who understands only the state’s planned economy. Hence, PBOC Governor Yi Gang, Finance Minister Liu Kun and Leading Banking Regulator Guo Shuqing, who are also market-oriented politicians, could withdraw. Other reformers, such as former central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan and Finance Minister Lou Jiwei, have already withdrawn early.
Barry Naughton, a professor of Chinese economics at the University of California, San Diego, wrote that advisers close to Xi Jinping like Liu He wouldn’t lose 100 percent of their influence overnight, but the general reality is that those people who have succeeded them will have less experience, less international reputation and less influence when participating in economic policymaking.
Possible for the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist PartyPrime Minister candidateAs a result, said Logan Wright, director of Chinese market research at research firm Rhodium Group: “If Xi prefers loyalty to technocratic expertise, he will be one of the strongest political signals in Congress. One, and he will interpret the Chinese economy. negative prospects for the next five years “.
Analyst: Xi Jinping has a wrong idea of how to govern
Bloomberg’s Brook questioned whether Xi has the wrong idea of how to govern.
“Xi Jinping seems to have drawn completely wrong conclusions from China’s rise, attributing it to party supremacy and historical correctness, rather than the increased role of the market, which unleashed the entrepreneurial energy of the Chinese people.”
Brook said Xi reaffirmed the primacy of state-owned enterprises and intervened in the private economy, cracking down on tech companies, among other things.
“These interventions, combined with Xi Jinping’s strict adherence to zero policy, have caused clear damage to China’s growth prospects and have left China’s economic development in limbo,” Brooker wrote.
Ultimately, he said, the concern is that Xi Jinping, as an “individual who has taken so much power in a closed Leninist system,” especially because he uses the slogans of “common prosperity” and “national rejuvenation” to establish ideological legitimacy, it may end up making him “indifferent to contradictory evidence and the accumulated problems will eventually become too complex to solve.”
China’s economic difficulties, especially the slow real estate sector
Currently, nearly a third of the Chinese economy is in a state of collapse.
Norton, a California economics professor, said the CCP’s COVID-19 zero policy is the biggest and most immediate threat to the Chinese economy, but politics is far from the only contributing factor. China’s economic problems.
The difficult situation of the Chinese economy manifests itself in various aspects. Consumer confidence fell to unprecedented lows after the April slump. Furthermore, youth unemployment rose to an unprecedented 19.9% in July, house prices in about half of the cities (except Beijing, Shanghai or Shenzhen) stopped rising and started to decline, and home buyers they refuse to continue paying bank loans for undelivered properties.
According to Chinese balance of payments data, the net loss per quarter far exceeds $ 100 billion, with capital outflows equivalent to around 3% of total GDP.
For investors, they are particularly concerned about China’s real estate sector, which analysts describe as a “slow-motion financial crisis” that “is spreading through the deep fabric of China’s political economy.”
The Financial Times said the shock of last year’s debt crisis at Evergrande “wiped out billions of dollars lent to the company and its colleagues, paralyzed construction across the country, and left areas of unfinished buildings and pushed angry buyers to boycott mortgages. “
Responsible editor: Lin Yan #
