“Analysis: The Risks and Rewards of Ukraine’s Spring Offensive Against Russia”

For months, Ukrainian forces have been equipping their military forces, and conducting exercises to get the operational departments in place. Tanks, missiles, planes and ammunition have flowed into the countrywhile the world has been holding its breath in anticipation of an upcoming counter-offensive.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj realizes the importance of such an offensive, and is probably aware of the expectations from the West and in Ukraine.

– Pressure has probably built up around this announced Ukrainian offensive over time. There is always more than a discussion about who wins as time goes by, and as the situation is now, this is probably risky for both Ukraine and Russia, says Arne Bård Dalhaug, retired lieutenant general and former chief of the Defense Staff.

Last week, Ukraine’s defense minister said that preparations for the announced spring offensive were “in the final stages”. When Volodymyr Zelenskyj met the Nordic leaders in Helsinki last week, he also made clear statements.

– We will soon carry out an offensive, and after that I am sure that we will be given flights. I think this year will be decisive for us, for Europe, for Ukraine, decisive for the victory, Zelenskyj said.

At the same time, there are several people who speak up to say that they must not allow themselves to be pressured into launching an offensive before they are properly prepared. Czech President Petr Pavel is one of those warning Ukraine against launching a counter-offensive now.

– Will be extremely harmful

According to The Guardian he appealed to Ukraine’s prime minister not to fall for the temptation to “be pushed into a higher pace before they are fully prepared.”

– It will be extremely damaging for Ukraine if this counter-offensive fails, because they will not have another chance, at least not this year, Petr Pavel said.

The Ukrainian president has built up expectations both in Ukraine and in the West. At the same time, he knows that they face a difficult task.

Zelenskyy feels the pressure

– They probably feel the pressure now. But both Zelenskyj and Defense Minister Oleksij Reznikov have warned that one must not have excessive expectations of this offensive, says Arne Bård Dalhaug.

So far, neither Ukraine nor Russia has shown the ability to break through well-defended areas, and it is highly uncertain how such an attack would take the form.

– It has not been attempted before in this war, says Dalhaug.

Ready for battle

Up to 40,000 newly trained Ukrainian soldiers will now be ready for battle, equipped with military equipment from NATO and trained up by Western instructors.

– Ukraine will probably not start a counter-offensive until these soldiers are ready, in any case. It will also depend on whether the ground has dried properly, because you need a dry surface to be able to maneuver with large armored brigades, says head teacher at Krigsskolen, Palle Ydstebø.

It has been a spring with a lot of rainfall and it will probably not be really dry along the entire front until the end of May, perhaps early June.

– There are 9 brigades with Western equipment, and that Ukraine itself has some well-equipped departments. They probably have 12–13 well-trained brigades they can deploy in the offensive, says Dalhaug.

Will meet resistance

The storm brigades can face tough opposition. The Russians have been preparing for this counter-offensive for several months.

– The Russians will probably continue to prepare for what they think is coming. As early as last autumn, they started building barricades and fortifications a couple of miles behind the front, from the border with Russia in the north and south through Donbass and Zaporizhzhya down to Kherson. And especially in defense in depth towards the Crimean peninsula, says Palle Ydstebø.

Still unsure

But despite the fact that both military experts, politicians and journalists have been speculating for months, it is still uncertain exactly where these soldiers will be directed, according to head teacher at the War College, Palle Ydstebø.

– Where they want to attack is the big question. A larger attack against Zaporizhzhya and down towards the Sea of ​​Azov would have been strategically obvious. Then they will be able to split the Russian forces in two and virtually isolate the forces in Kherson and Crimea. But that does not necessarily mean that it is what one should do, because that is what the Russians are probably prepared for.

– Incompetent warfare at all levels

It is also uncertain what is needed for the offensive to be considered successful.

– I am convinced that we will see Ukrainian progress in the war, but it is not certain that it will be enough to change Moscow’s view of the war. Everything in Russia’s strategy suggests that they will absorb the Ukrainian offensive with the least possible damage, and prolong the war indefinitely. It is not the preferred strategy, but they have been forced into this as a result of incompetent warfare at all levels, says Dalhaug.

Palle Ydstebø believes a major Ukrainian offensive can be a success, if they play their cards right.

– If Ukraine manages to maintain the advantage around the combat itself that they have had so far, manages to continue to weaken the Russians through sabotage attacks – and maybe also manages to create a surprise that they can exploit – then I would say that they have a good chance of succeed.

– Probably not the end of the war

But he warns that we will probably not see the end of the war immediately.

– It probably does not mean that they will be able to end the war with such an offensive, but that they can possibly achieve such large gains that it can be used in the future, says the lieutenant colonel.

The Ukrainian forces can choose to attack in the Luhansk area where the Russian defense positions are probably weaker, but Dalhaug believes this will be a military strategic mismanagement.

– It will not change much in the war. The potential to change the course of the war lies in them cutting off the land bridge to Russia. Then they have to cut the road and the train connection at the town of Melitopol, towards the Sea of ​​Azov. If they succeed, they will make it considerably more difficult for the Russian forces, he says.

– What if they fail in the offensive?

– It’s a big challenge, and it’s a matter of definition what counts as failure. They can gain a lot of ground without necessarily coming all the way to the Sea of ​​Azov, he says.

Nevertheless, the Ukrainians have then come through all three defense layers of the Russians, and will take back parts of the country.

– It is no small feat, but will probably be considered insufficient, says Dalhaug.

The worst that can happen

Then he believes they risk being stuck in a frozen conflict that could last for many years to come.

– The worst that can happen is that they get stuck, and that the Russians destroy and capture large parts of the weapons and vehicles they have received from the West.

– Never happened before

– There is a risk that they will lose a lot of equipment and soldiers, which the Russians are obviously hoping for. It is not necessarily that easy to get several hundred new tanks.

An unfinished war where Russia is left sitting on a large part of Ukraine is unfortunately not an unlikely solution.

– You can end up with a frozen situation where the Russians possess a larger area of ​​land than they had before 24 February 2022, says Arne Bård Dalhaug to Dagbladet.