© Georgi Kozhuharov
The war at the moment is like a catch-22 – to get more weapons, Ukraine needs to advance on the front, and to advance on the front, it needs more weapons.
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Analysis republished from “Free Europe”.
Kiev reported Russian attacks on grain storage facilities in the Danube region
A week ago, Jens Stoltenberg’s chief of staff mentioned that one option to end the war in Ukraine is to trade territory for peace and NATO membership. The next day he apologized. He said he made a mistake. Jens Stoltenberg also tried to downplay his words.
Even if it was accidentally dropped, the sentence suggests the mood in the high political circles of the Alliance.
Here are three elements that fuel these sentiments.
Ukraine’s slow progress on the front
There was a prediction that didn’t sound realistic: that Ukraine would mount a decisive and effective counteroffensive. Now that the war is in a “nothing new on the western front” state, the disappointment comes not from reality, but from the point of view of predictions and unrealistic hopes.
There are various explanations for Ukraine’s slow progress. Among them are:
the mining of large areas around the front lines; the delayed transition of military aid to more technologically advanced weapons; the improved fitness of the Russian military; the inexhaustible human resource that the power in the Kremlin is ready to throw into the fire; military aid to Moscow from Iran, and perhaps covertly from China, and through illegal arms suppliers.
However, these and other factors should be taken into account in risk assessment, as is constantly being done for war.
It is imprudent for Western official spokesmen to announce for months that a successful counter-offensive is imminent. This sets the stage for subsequent disappointment.
Self-confident Putin
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When Evgeny Prigozhin began its military rebellion against the rule of the Russian army, there was panic in the Kremlin. But immediately after that the rebellion was contained, and the political situation in Moscow began to look stable. It may be apparent, but so far there are no signs of concussions.
It is increasingly likely that Putin is now agreeing to a long war. If he holds on to the current situation long enough, he may even profit from his persistence.
So does anyone thinking of trading Ukrainian territory for peace ask themselves how much Putin himself wants such a thing?
The increased self-confidence of the Russian president does not suggest a desire for peace negotiations, and the situation of “endless war” suits him for now. A major risk for Russia is a possible internal collapse, political and economic. But this cannot be estimated with sufficient accuracy.
In this context, what does it even mean to talk about peace and diplomacy? Ukraine has its unchanging and fair conditions. And even if she agrees to try to negotiate, if the Russian side is indifferent, what can be expected? Russia would demand impossible things such as keeping the occupied territories, refusing NATO membership, lifting sanctions, acquitting war criminals, refusing reparations, etc.
There are currently no terms for negotiations on any line.
US support
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A more significant factor, hinted at by the small scandal of the exchange of Ukrainian territory for peace, is US support for Ukraine. It falls slowly but seems permanent. The reasons are trivial. People get tired, they were supportive, but time passes and everyday life gradually shifts principled positions. This is especially true for the US, where isolationist attitudes have dominated the entire history of the federation.
A recent CNN poll shows that 55% of Americans oppose continuing the military aid that Congress voted against, compared to 45% who think it should continue. The numbers are around the edge of a sentiment reversal, but the trend is toward more restrained support.
A look at the motives shows that the Americans do not want a protracted war, without clear parameters and achievable goals. Predictably, Republicans are more skeptical, with over 70% opposed to continued military aid. For the Democrats, the numbers are in favor of Ukraine.
In the European Union, support almost does not fall, it stands with small fluctuations above 70%, which includes military aid.
In four countries, including Bulgaria, it is slightly below 50%, but these levels are also high. This is encouraging and is due to a growing realism among citizens. “We in Eastern Europe live under the eye of the Russians,” said Carl Schmidt a century ago. The dangerous eye of Russia is beginning to form a mass sense of threat.
What to expect
It is often suggested that Putin is waiting for Trump to win and for the two to strike a deal that benefits the Kremlin. However, that is not the point. Trump’s chances are dwindling, more likely than not to make it to the election at all after the latest allegations from the state of Georgia.
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In the US, however, upcoming elections usually push foreign policy plans into the background. If the war remains in a state of relative immobility, support will fall. The mass electorate would agree to an engagement with Ukraine if the war had visible momentum and something tangible was changing. In this regard, Putin’s confidence seems well calculated.
The status is paragraph 22. The course of the war will not change dramatically at current levels of military aid. But future aid is beginning to depend on the expected shift at the front. Elections generally impose such irrational conditions.
Western countries have long hesitated whether to provide Ukraine with the weapons it needs. With each increase in power, technology and quality of weapons, Ukraine reports progress. So in the end there is no delay or due to both sides. It is present in the mass ideas of the voter, who orients himself for everything in his human everyday life.
These conditions – a self-confident Putin, US elections, a stationary military front – are unfavorable for Ukraine. And for Europe, which must be the first to fully wake up to the scenario of a war on the continent without the US factor.
The column “Analyses” presents different points of view, the opinions expressed do not necessarily coincide with the editorial position of “Dnevnik”.
2023-08-24 06:05:03
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