On Tuesday, August 22, the 15th BRICS Summit opens in Johannesburg (South Africa). This is an association of five states of Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS is an abbreviation made up of the first letters of the names of countries – Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa – approx. ed.) was created with the active participation of the Kremlin at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum in 2006 in order to promote Russian interests in the world.
Representatives of the participating countries, at the suggestion of Moscow, often pointed out that “the BRICS countries unite 3.21 billion people, which is 43% of the world population.”
Despite this and other loud statements about the importance and importance in the world, BRICS has never had any significant political power among modern international organizations.
Nevertheless, over the past years of its existence, BRICS has increasingly become a platform for promoting anti-Western and anti-American sentiments, and recently there have been statements about the “need to rebuild the world order”, which supposedly “has begun to negatively affect the countries of the global South”.
On the eve of the upcoming BRICS summit, at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, DC, five experts, each of whom is a specialist in one of the BRICS member countries, presented an analysis of the key topics and context of the summit, and shared their expectations From him.
South Africa will further strengthen its authority on the continent and beyond
“The summit will literally follow in the footsteps of the friction that arose a few weeks ago between the United States and South Africa, after Lady R — a Russian ship was spotted in South African waters and allegedly delivered weapons to Russia. South Africa’s vote on the first UN resolution on Ukraine also caused a lot of friction between African countries and Western countries. These actions of the country’s leadership showed the countries of Africa that the South Africans have their own position. Thus, the fact that South Africa, as a result, is also hosting this BRICS summit, confirms the position of South Africa in the eyes of African leaders as the leading African country in the international arena, ”explained Mwemba Fezo DizoleleDirector and Senior Fellow of the African Program of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (Mvemba Phezo Dizolele, Director and Senior Fellow, Africa Program, CSIS).
Disolele also expressed confidence that “the fact that South Africa remains the most significant economy on the continent has strengthened the country’s position among the majority of non-aligned countries.”
The expert also stated that “the summit is expected to discuss topics that are unpleasant for Western countries.” First of all, he noted “growing disillusionment in Africa with the actions of the US-led coalition.”
“De-dollarization” could also be one of the items on the agenda.
“The BRICS countries,” says Disolele, “will continue to discuss the concept of a single currency – again, a point that South Africa is very keen to take on.”
The expansion of membership, according to the expert, will be “another important topic of the summit.” However, “the debate promises to be tough” as India is very “concerned about the role that China will play, which may take over the entire “political platform” of the summit to assert its influence.”
40 countries and 40 of their leaders who will attend this summit are already showing interest in joining this international association.
China will remind everyone of its economic power
Brian Harta researcher at the China Power Project of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (Brian Hart, Fellow, China Power Project, CSIS), stressed that Beijing views the BRICS as “a unique platform for expanding its influence on a global scale.”
“Chinese representatives have long understood that the G-20 is largely dominated by the United States and its allies, while the BRICS is truly the only major mechanism for emerging economies that has a global reach and really brings together the most important strategic players,” he said. analyst.
“China already has significant weight and influence in the association,” the expert said. “China alone accounts for about 70 percent of the total GDP of the BRICS countries.”
According to the researcher, “emphasizing its economic superiority over other member countries of this international union, the PRC will try to present itself as a kind of champion or vanguard of the developing world and the global South.”
At the same time, according to the analyst, in China itself, the BRICS are often compared with the “big seven”, which “has the ability to form a global discourse.”
In addition, Brian Hart is confident that “despite the complication of relations between India and China on the border issue,” Beijing “will seek to ‘work’ with India within the BRICS framework to advance its agenda.”
“First, China will insist on expanding the composition of key members. From their point of view, the expansion of the BRICS at the expense of other developing countries will give China more opportunities to project its power and influence in key regions. We will talk about some countries of the Middle East, Africa and, to some extent, Latin America, the expert noted. – Secondly, the PRC will definitely try to oppose the United States and its allies on key issues during the summit, since Beijing has long considered the BRICS as some kind of global leverage to rebuff the United States. Thirdly, the BRICS summit is an opportunity for China to deepen relations with South Africa and Africa.”
India will become the “standard-bearer of the global South”
According to Catherine B. Hadda, Head of the Department of US-India Policy Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (Katherine B. Hadda, Visiting Fellow, Chair in US-India Policy Studies, CSIS), India’s continued involvement in BRICS serves several purposes: on the one hand, it “publicly demonstrates its political independence from the West, including in its ties with Russia.” At the same time, “given the increased trajectory of its economic integration with Europe and the US, India will not miss any radical proposals that may prove too inconvenient for the United States and its allies.”
“First, unlike China, India’s economy is growing quite well. And secondly, they have alternative partnerships that other BRICS members do not currently have, especially China and Russia, for example, with the United States and other Western countries, the expert noted, while India considers BRICS as a platform for consensus.”
Russia uses the summit as a platform for its propaganda
Maria SnowSenior Fellow of the Europe, Russia and Eurasia Program of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (Maria Snegovaya, Senior Fellow, Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program, CSIS), recalled that the New Development Bank, which was created by the countries -members of the BRICS, recently announced that it was “giving up on investment projects in Russia because of the sanctions” – the economic goals that the Kremlin set, facilitating the creation of the BRICS, turned out to be unattainable.
“However, there are political goals that Moscow considers much more realistic, and which can be realized through the BRICS alliance,” Snegovaya noted, “The alliance is important for Russia, as well as for other BRICS members, as a kind of counterbalance to the world dominated by USA and its allies. Russia, of course, is one of the main supporters of the existence of such a counterbalance.”
The expert suggested that Russia “will support the expansion of membership” in the BRICS: “Russia, for example, officially discussed the possibility of Iran’s membership.”
“The Kremlin will try to use the invitation of new participating countries in its propaganda efforts,” said Maria Snegovaya, especially in the light of the Ukrainian-led Jeddah summit, which focused, in particular, on strengthening this country’s contacts with the “global South” and the search for a peaceful completion of Russia’s war in Ukraine.
“Given the large number of participants in this event, this will certainly be used by Sergey Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, as an attempt to present an alternative, “Russian” vision of the situation. Russia’s propaganda efforts in South Africa have been very successful. The information they disseminate is very actively promoted, in particular through social networks,” added the Russia specialist.
Snegovaya noted that while China, India, and South Africa “refrained from condemning the Russian invasion,” in general, some polls showed that “their societies are not very supportive of Russia.” Brazil “officially voted to condemn the aggression.”
“And the very fact that Putin did not come to South Africa, and the fact that the Vice President of South Africa mentioned that “they would be happy if Putin did not go” is very revealing,” she added.
Brazil will reassert itself on the world stage
Ryan S. BergDirector of the American Program of the Center for Strategic and International Studies of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (Ryan C. Berg, Director, Americas Program, CSIS), said that “Brazil views the BRICS as an important part of its overall foreign policy”:
“Firstly, because Brazil is trying in every possible way today to create more space for its own strategic autonomy, especially from Washington, since the latter is the most important power in the Western Hemisphere. Secondly, the BRICS for Brazil is a harbinger of the “coming era of multipolarity”, which Brazil welcomes in every possible way. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva sees his country as the leading country of a new type in South America.”
Berg also said that “Lula is convinced” that neutrality on some important global issues, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, “will draw more attention to countries in the world, such as Brazil, that otherwise remain forgotten and considered ‘not serious’.” “.
“Lula is trying to show Brazil as “very serious,” the expert explained. “And what are the “serious countries” doing on the world stage? They “join such large organizations as BRICS”. They seek to have relations with all the “major powers of the world.” And they are aimed at “solving intractable global problems, such as Brazil intervened in 2009 and 2010 – much to the chagrin of the US – in the Iranian nuclear crisis. And earlier this year, Brazil intervened in the war in Ukraine, saying that “it has the opportunity to lead” the so-called “Peace Club” from different countries to negotiate an end to the war.”
According to the analyst, “Lula personally has a lot of influence in the Global South.” Thus, BRICS is “only one of the channels of personal influence for Lula himself.”
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2023-08-21 15:42:31
