Even premises in which few people were interested found a buyer. To get BK2%. many people bought anything at a moment’s notice. No one asked: so what if you have a cheap loan and overpay for your apartment? – describes Jan Dziekoński, FLTR.
- The new government will have bigger problems than subsidizing loans for people who are not in the worst situation. Therefore, BK2 percent. will probably disappear.
- Latest applications for BK2%. can be submitted exactly at 11:49 p.m. on January 7, 2024. A moment later, BGK should announce the end of accepting new ones.
- Kowalski with an average salary today has a creditworthiness at the level of 2017-2019. It is 40% lower. than in 2021. Therefore, there are few ordinary loans without state subsidies.
- In big cities, you have to earn PLN 15,000-20,000 to buy a measly two rooms. PLN gross.
– Everyone has probably realized that a safe loan is 2%. it will be over soon. By the end of this year, the budget for this program will be more than exhausted. That’s why the market movement is strong in December, because many people are still trying to get into it – he explains Jan Dziekońskifounder of the consulting platform FLTR.
There will still be some craziness in December
According to data Polish Bank Association, over 70,000 were submitted by the end of November. loan applications 2 percent and approximately 44,000 were signed. contracts. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Development assumed that there would be 10,000 of them.
– The number of loan applications is decreasing. We observed the biggest increase right after the program was introduced, i.e. in July and August. Then the demand calmed down a bit, and now there are more applicants, but still fewer than during the holidays – says Jan Dziekoński.
Currently, banks sign more contracts than applications are submitted.
– By the end of the year there will probably be 50-60 thousand. concluded credit agreements. Meanwhile, the budget for 2024 assumed approximately PLN 45,000. loans. Therefore, if the law is not changed, the program will disappear next year – explains Jan Dziekoński.
Recent loan applications 2%. it will be possible to submit exactly at 11.49 p.m. on January 7, 2024. A moment later BGK should announce the end of accepting new applications.
– Therefore, we should expect that there will still be some craziness at the end of December – the expert predicts.
Credit 0 percent tempting but unrealistic
What will the new government do? It is not known because the coalition agreement does not mention programs supporting demand, including subsidies for loans. Each party has a different approach to BK2%. The left will not support any subsidies for wealthy people. In turn, PO proposed a 0% loan, but only for the primary market in super-energy buildings.
– 0 percent sounds tempting, but the second condition of this proposition is a bit less so. Almost no developer voluntarily builds facilities that are more energy efficient than required by technical conditions. Therefore, there will be no such products on the market, so there will be nothing to buy with a 0% loan. – describes Jan Dziekoński.
In turn, Polska 2050 does not want to continue the distribution, and PSL proposes the Własny Kąt program with a 1.5% loan.
If there is no 2% safe loan program, the housing market will return to counting creditworthiness without support. In big cities, you have to earn PLN 15,000-20,000 to buy a measly two rooms. PLN gross – he calculates Jan Dziekońskifounder of the consulting platform FLTR.
– For now, it looks like the new government will have bigger problems, including: with the state budget or anti-inflation shields than subsidies for loans for people who are not in the worst situation, so it will not be dealt with immediately. Therefore, in the first months of the new year, a safe loan of 2 percent. will disappear, will be suspended – predicts Jan Dziekoński.
The market square is cleared of apartments
If there is no 2% safe loan program, the housing market will return to counting creditworthiness without support.
– Today, Kowalski with an average salary has a creditworthiness more or less at the level of 2017-2019. It is lower by 40%. than in 2021. Therefore, the so-called there are few ordinary loans. In big cities, you have to earn PLN 15,000-20,000 to buy a measly two rooms. PLN gross – calculates Jan Dziekoński.
Therefore, demand on the housing market will probably not be impressive, especially since interest rates will not change until March. At the same time, the market is heavily cleared of apartments.
– In recent months, even premises that no one was interested in for months found a buyer. Many people just want to get a 2% loan. bought anything in a hurry. No one asked: so what if you have a cheap loan and overpay for your apartment? – describes Jan Dziekoński.
The offer on the primary market has stabilized since August this year. Supply stopped falling and even increased in November in all large markets.
– The decline in demand was met by the second trend, i.e. a slow increase in supply. In 2022, approximately 4 thousand apartments entered the primary market. Then this activity dropped to approximately 3,000. The beginning of 2023 was poor, but gradually developers began to deliver more and more premises to the market. So the offer is slowly starting to rebuild, but unfortunately at high prices – explains Jan Dziekoński.
How have apartment prices skyrocketed?
Krakow was completely cleared of small and medium-sized apartments. In turn, there are more apartment offers in Łódź than before the entry of BK2%. In this respect, the situation is better than, for example, in Wrocław or Tricity.
– Prices on the primary market increased by 20%. in large cities, in smaller ones by approximately 10 percent. – says Jan Dziekoński.
Since the announcement of the BK2 program, in Kraków, Wrocław, Gdańsk and Poznań, apartment prices increased by over 20%.
– These are mainly small apartments, so it actually means over 30 percent. In the case of large spaces that do not necessarily sell well everywhere – approx. 10%. – says Jan Dziekoński, founder of the FLTR consulting platform.
In Warsaw, the increase on the primary market was lower, reaching 18 percent, but it was still a dizzying leap.
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2023-12-10 09:56:00
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