Remus Ștefureac, director of INSCOP Research, said in an interview for G4Media.ro about the census results that the aging population will increase competition in this huge electoral segment and there is no longer a single party that has a monopoly on this category. Furthermore, the budget allocations will favor the elderly and sacrifice the interests of other categories of the population, we will talk more about pensions and social programs and less about educational programs.
If the aging of the population is the most worrying result, there are positive signs, such as the increase in the share of the population with secondary and higher education. In the long term, this will also lead to outlining a different educational and value profile of the new elderly compared to the elderly of the last two decades.
Remus Ștefureac says he also sees an opportunity in the declining number of Orthodox believers, in the sense that we could see “a refinement, an improvement in the way the Church builds and maintains its relationship with the faithful, including through the strong development of the social mission of the Romanian Orthodox Church”.
Full interview:
Reporter: What is the most worrying trend in the new data? Why?
Remus Stefureac: By far the most worrying trend is population aging overlapping with general population decline. Accelerated aging is, however, a systemic risk, a threat that is already beginning to put enormous pressure on public systems. Beyond the implications on social security systems, on pension systems, there will be many other social and economic consequences that we still do not anticipate.
Reporter: Is there any positive signal in the census results?
Remus Stefureac: there are also positive signs such as those related to the increase in the share of the population with secondary and higher education. While this is weak growth, it is noteworthy because it draws attention to the pressing need to increase the share of the population with higher education to get closer to the European average.
Reporter: What is the most surprising result?
Remus Stefureac: Honestly, I did not expect a decrease in the population of Bucharest, but related to the increase in the population of Ilfov county, we come to the conclusion that from a social point of view, the population as a whole of this large metropolitan area has not really decreased , but has stagnated. I expected, however, that the population of the Bucharest-Ilfov region would grow a little more.
Reporter: Can we speak of polarization of the population around the large university and economic centres, parallel to the depopulation of the non-university counties?
Remus Stefureac: Polarization is perhaps too strong a word, but the tendency to concentrate the population towards large urban centers, more attractive areas in terms of economic opportunities, quality of services and public goods, is beginning to be evident.
Reporter: Politically, what consequences do you see?
Remus Stefureac: The aging of the population combined with the fact that the most disciplined voters are the elderly will benefit parties that have a traditional link with this electoral segment. At the same time, however, an aging population will increase competition in this huge electoral segment, as all parties allocate resources to snag older voters. In the longer term, I don’t think there will be a single party that will have a monopoly on this category of voters who will also have a different educational and value profile than the elderly of the last two decades. The implications of these demographic transformations will be seen in electoral programs, public policies and budget allocations that will favor the older generation and sacrifice the interests of other categories of the population. There is also the prospect of talking more and more about pensions, social programs and less and less about educational programs or projects to stimulate the new generations.
Reporter: The Orthodox Church has lost 2.5 million believers in a decade, can we talk about medium-term consequences?
Remus Stefureac: All denominations appear to have lost believers due to population decline. The impact on the faithful of the Orthodox denomination is obviously greater due to the dominant percentage in the country’s population. I am of the opinion that, in any field, quality is more important than quantity, and in this field I think the number of practicing believers who engage in the Church’s activities is more relevant, whatever their nature. Furthermore, I also see an opportunity here, in the sense that, against the background of the decrease in the number of believers, we could see, and we are already seeing good signs, a refinement, an improvement in the way in which the Church builds and maintains its relationship with believers, also through the strong development of the social mission of the Romanian Orthodox Church.
Reporter: The share of the ethnic Hungarian population has decreased, is there a danger that they can no longer be represented politically in Parliament by the UDMR?
Remus Stefureac: I do not believe that this danger exists and, should it somehow materialize, the Romanian state and the majority have a duty to ensure that the most important ethnic minority in Romania is adequately represented in Parliament. With all the dramas we have seen in the countries around us over the past three decades due to inter-ethnic conflicts, it is important that the wisdom shown by Romania in managing the majority-minority relationship and in the parliamentary representation of minorities remains the same as before, a model of good practice for all of Europe.
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