Aftershocks of a Political Shake-up

– This is a political earthquake. It can lead to political mass violence, dit could have a decisive effect on the presidential election in 2024, indicting other politicians and breaking trust in the political system.

That’s what Hilmar Mjelde, associate professor of political science at the University of Western Norway, writes in a message to Dagbladet.

– There could be even more Latin American conditions in American politics than there already are, he continues.

On Thursday afternoon local time, a grand jury in the courthouse in lower Manhattan in New York decided that there are grounds for indicting former US President Donald Trump, according to The New York Times.

The public prosecutor confirms the indictment, and provides information on Twitter that they have been in contact with Trump’s lawyer, to coordinate Trump’s appearance at the Attorney General’s office.

In a statement on Thursday, Trump maintains his innocence.

– This is political persecution and interference in elections at the highest level in history, says Trump in the statement.

Hush money

No sitting or former US president has ever been indicted in a criminal case.

Exactly what Trump is charged with is not yet publicly known. according to CNN should it concern more than 30 charges relating to business fraud.

According to The New York Times, the indictment is linked to the so-called hush money case.

Porn actress Stephanie Clifford, known under the stage name Stormy Daniels, claims she had an affair with Trump in 2006 – something Trump denies.

Trump has been investigated for his role in the payment of $130,000 (about NOK 1,365,000) to Daniels just weeks before the 2016 election – allegedly in exchange for her silence about the alleged affair.

– As expected

Trump’s former fixer and lawyer, Michael Cohen, was convicted for his role in the case in 2018. He has admitted to transferring the money to Daniels just before the 2016 election, and has since been paid by Trump for “legal expenses.”

– It is expected that Trump will now surrender, that his fingerprints and photo will be taken, and that he will go before a judge. But the logistics around this are a bit unclear at the moment, writes Mjelde.

– How expected or unexpected was this?

– As expected lately, but surprising if we look back in time. That’s because US prosecutors dropped this case earlier, but have now picked it up again. It is not clear why, and the prosecutor’s office in New York must now explain why, writes Mjelde.

– One point could be that sitting presidents have immunity from criminal prosecution, also at state level. It just makes it generally easier to prosecute Trump now versus in the past.

The case emphasizes that presidents can also be prosecuted and held accountable, Mjelde believes.

– On the other hand, the threshold should be relatively high and the case watertight, for reasons of trust in the rule of law. Especially when the president is still a candidate. There is a lot at stake here.

– Not mobilized

Mjelde elaborates:

– The problem is that this is the least serious case against Trump of all that is ongoing. That is why I have been skeptical that this indictment is viable politically and legally, and I think Trump has good cards here. He is unlikely to risk more than a fine.

On his own social media platform, Truth Social, Donald Trump himself has claimed that he will be “arrested on Tuesday” last week. So he didn’t become that.

In the same message, he urged his followers to protest – not unlike what he did ahead of the storming of the US Congress on January 6, 2021.

However, Mjelde does not believe that it is likely that larger – possibly violent – riots will take place in the immediate future.

– No, there are no signs of that. We will not see any clashes à la January 6, 2021. His supporters are not mobilized in the same way, and the authorities are well prepared. We now have to see what the state attorney presents, writes Mjelde.