The administrative continuity it is “a very inelegant political solution, legally questionable and strategically unprofitable”, in the opinion of the doctor of political science Juan Manuel Trak.
The researcher warns that this maneuver proposed by the opposition that supports Juan Guaidó would lower the costs or consequences of suppress the government of Nicolás Maduro and would make the interim government a irrelevant actor.
By extending the Legislative term beyond what the Constitution allows (on January 5, 2021), the opposition would give rise to the Chavista regime accusing the deputies of incurring usurpation of functions.
“The opposition is exposed to a certain risk of repression, because the Maduro government can act assuming that its opponents do not have immunity parliamentary. It lowers the cost of repressing the deputies who assume this political path, “he explains.
Another risk is higher fragmentation of the opposition bench elected in 2015. “They are exposed to a greater division between those who support this formula to continue the political struggle and those who within the group of deputies themselves do not agree, so the elected Parliament will become even more fragmented in 2015 “, Explain.
Betting on administrative continuity too would reduce political effectiveness of the legislative body elected in 2015 and the interim government, in the opinion of the expert.
“There is a risk of further losing responsiveness. The National Assembly has been powerless in the exercise of their functions from the beginning as a consequence of the actions of an authoritarian government, but lengthening a fictitious institutionality puts them in a situation of greater vulnerability, ”he warns.
Displaced opposition
For the professor of political theory at the Óscar Vallés Metropolitan University, if the opposition insists on extending the mandate of the National Assembly and not participating in future elections, displaced from the political scene.
The parliamentary elections are not the only ones that are in the door, the elections of mayors and governors are scheduled for 2021.
“From a political point of view, this approach has little support, this presupposes that the 2015 National Assembly will continue to function, but why? What is the real power What will this traveling power have? We know that Guaidó can eliminate VAT tomorrow and merchants will have to continue collecting it, “he says.
The political scientist warns that the legislation that emerges from the new National Assembly, elected in December this year, will have the backing of the Power Judicial, of the Executive and of the repressive bodies from Maduro.
“What will happen to the legislation that emerges from the new National Assembly in tax matters, for example, businessmen and merchants, what are they going to say? That they don’t admit it because there is administrative continuity?” He asks.
Survival strategy
Political scientist Juan Manuel Trak believes that the route supported by Guaidó, who has stated that “the current National Assembly will remain in force until you choose freely ” it seems more like a survival strategy.
“Strategically it does not seem to give many advantages for what seems to be an option for the survival policy of some leaders and justify remaining an opposition that receives funds and international support. It seems more like a survival strategy than a mechanism designed to search for the political change“He declares.
This will cause a major divorce between society and the political leadership “because it increasingly distances the construction of a much broader movement that needs to be articulated to fight for the rescue of civil and political rights,” he says.
Professor Óscar Vallés agrees with this argument: “The framework for action by the National Assembly (after January 5, 2021) will be none. The only thing that is sought with this decision is to preserve the monopoly of political representation in Venezuela not for Venezuelans but for the international community. “
Assets at risk?
The interim government of Juan Guaidó has access to money and assets from the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. So a scenario in which their legitimacy is questioned would call into question the management of these public resources.
The end of the parliamentary term, January 5, 2021, opens the question about what will happen to these assets?
“We have no way to do with the interim government comptroller because the Executive is supposed to be controlled by the Legislative, but in this case the head of the Legislative also proclaims himself as the head of the Executive, so how can we speak of a separation of powers and in a form of control exercise? ”says Juan Manuel Trak.
And he adds: “There is a vulnerability of those resources because we are not seeing who or how or for what they are managed and if the expenses that are being made are justified. That shouldn’t be handled by a government that has not been elected, which has not been the product of direct votes ”.
Óscar Vallés also questions the opaque handling of these funds: “What worries me is that, whatever happens in Venezuela, what is certain is that if these funds are inappropriately administered by officials with immunity, who is responsible for who is going to relapse? How is the Republic?
Juan Guaidó’s ambassador to the United States, Carlos Vecchio, defended the transparency of the interim government’s management and asserted Cocuyo effect than there are at least three controls that protect the resources and assets of the Republic.
Possibles scenarios
The experts consulted identify three possible political scenarios:
1️⃣ Assembly with Chavista majority. Although Chavismo does not have popular support in its favor, it will obtain a parliamentary majority because the electoral system continues to disproportionately represent political factors and it is highly probable that the opposition will compete dividedly.
2️⃣ Opposition more fragmented and with little real power internally. For Trak, persecution is likely to increase and some leaders will have to go into exile; For Vallés, the opposition is more likely to simply be displaced from the political scene.
3️⃣ Greater international isolation. International sanctions will make the Maduro government more dependent on illegal black markets, which will increase its exit costs and reinforce its authoritarian actions.
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