The months of April and May, with temperatures higher than in previous years, have already set the tone. Like winter 2019-2020, also milder than the previous ones. According to Météo France, precipitation should also be low in the coming weeks
Generous sunshine, rising temperatures and summer feeling at least until the end of the week.
Like the taste of summer 2020 which already looks hotter than the average. In any case, this is the trend drawn across Europe by a group of experts from Météo France and Mercator Ocean – the French center for ocean analysis and forecasts – for the period between May and July.
“Despite poor predictability, the most likely scenario is that of stronger than normal pressure on north-western Europe”, they observe. These “enhanced high pressure conditions” find their illustration through “Drier and warmer than normal weather over these regions. The impact of climate change is also clearly visible in the forecast of temperatures which are forecast to be above normal climates across the continent”, note the meteorologists.
150 hours of sun
The past weeks have already made it possible to verify the hypothesis put forward, including on the island. “At the moment, temperatures are one to two degrees above normal. At the beginning of June, the phenomenon could be more marked. We could be up to 3 or even 4 degrees above normal occasionally. We will towards a warmer summer “, explains Patrick Rebillout, head of the Météo France center in Ajaccio.
Some uncertainties remain, however. “These data do not prejudge the existence of future heat waves”, he specifies. The strong average pressures forecast on the northwest of the continent should generate drier weather. “In June, July and August, the rains could be scarce. But, it is essential to remember that it is only a forecast which does not allow to anticipate possible storms in the mountains for example”, comments the manager.
In any case, the start of the year has already made it possible to detect edifying trends. And, for the time being, these boil down to a succession of national and local heat records.
The tone is set from January. On the island, the moment is characterized “by a great softness, which has lasted since the end of November. The rains are infrequent”, says the national meteorologist.
Showers in particular occur “on the 20th and especially on the 24th. On that day, they were very stormy and concentrated mainly on the eastern facade, more particularly on the Fiumorbo region which received more than 100 mm in 24 hours“.
In January, the strong blowing wind quickly calms down too. “Il is not very present, the number of days of strong wind recorded on the weather stations of Corsica is less than or equal to normal, Bastia (airport) totals 3 for a normal of 5 and there are 10 days from Libeccio to Cap Pertusato for a usual average of 14.“
The sun is needed more than usual at such a time. “The amount of sunshine accumulated during the month is important. Ajaccio, with a total of 150 hours 21, registers 10% of surplus and counts 5 days without sun on 3, 7, 16, 20 and 21. Corte records a total of 168 hours 29 and 3 days with a sky completely covered the 20, 21 and 23. Bastia, with a total of 176 hours 44, has a 32% surplus, despite 4 days without sunshine on 20, 21, 23 and 24“notes Météo France.
Break in March
Comparable climatic atmosphere in February, with good gusts in addition. “The wind is very present throughout the period. For example, there are 22 days of strong wind at Cap Pertusato, including 21 from Libeccio for an average of 14 usually in February. The storms follow one another, Hervé, the 3 and the 4; Ciara, 10 and 11; Bianca on 27. “
But the sun is shining and temperatures are hitting record highs. “This month of February displays an exceptional sweetness, placing it at 2e rank of the mildest February, preceded by February 1990. It is the daytime temperatures that are exceptional: the position of Alistro ranks at 1er rank of the record for the absolute maximum of the maximum temperature of a month in February, for Corsica, with 27.8 ° C recorded on the 11th by a strong foehn effect “, reports Meteos France.
Rain is rare. “February 2020 is the least wet month of the last 50 years. The duration of sunshine is increased with a positive anomaly at 130% of normal over a large eastern part of the island. Average temperatures complete this observation by posting normal surpluses of 2 to 5 degrees, from the interior to the coast. “
Mars comes to interrupt this course of things. We are experiencing a different weather situation. While staying within the norm however. “It is relatively rainy and shows a cumulative excess of 17% precipitation.
It is cooler than in previous months but the average temperature remains fairly consistent. After 3 months of mild winter weather, even very mild weather like in February, the average monthly temperature remains fairly faithful to normal, slightly exceeding it by 0.2 ° C in March. “
From 24 to 27, snow and winter fall on the island: “During this period the daily temperatures, overall on Corsica, are much lower than normal, the strongest differences are the 26 with a difference of -8 ° C for the maximum and nearly -6 ° C for the minimum .
In Vivario, records have been broken since 1961, when the post opened, on the 26th that of the lowest daily maximum temperature with a value of +2.3 ° C and on the 24th, that of the lowest minimum temperature low with -5.6 ° C “, details the meteorologist.
Critical situation in Balagne
The episode is intense but brief. He reminds, if need be, that the cold exists while April will in turn reveal the ambient mildness, spring version, at this stage of the calendar. What locates it “to 5e tied among the mildest April since 1960“.
And for good reason. “The minimum temperatures are most often 2 to 5 ° C higher, especially in the west of Corse-du-Sud and in the north of the Eastern Plain.
As for the maximums, they are everywhere above normal, for example an additional 3 to 5 ° C south of Castagniccia. “
Another striking fact is aligned with a very contrasted precipitation regime. We go from one region and one extreme to another:
“The monthly cumulative precipitation is higher than normal on the eastern facade of the south island of Bastia south of Corse-du-Sud and on the relief of Haute-Corse. Everywhere else, it is in deficit, representing less than 3/4 of the normal or even less than half with 20 to 50 mm recorded on the west coast of Haute-Corse. “
The heat continues in May, also the “12e consecutive month in France to be sweeter than normal “, underlines Patrick Rebillout.
Or an unprecedented climatic series correlated with an early agricultural drought but restricted, for the time being, to a very specific portion of the island. “The accumulations, that is to say the water which could have been stored in the aquifers and in the dams, we were at the beginning of spring above normal.
But, as it was warmer, the evaporation was more important overall. However, the last rains have been very useful. In the end, the only region that remains critical from this point of view is Balagne. All the others are within the norm and even beyond, as in the Eastern Plain, in the Bastia region and on certain reliefs “, he tempers.
The rest will depend on the movements of the atmosphere and the direction of the clouds.
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