I am unequivocally convinced that interest rates in Poland should continue to rise
– said prof. Joanna Tyrowicz, new member of the Monetary Policy Council. Tyrowicz was elected to the MPC by the Senate last weekTherefore, the MPC meeting on 5 October will be the first.
Need for further interest rate increases Ludwik Kotecki, another Senate-appointed MPC member, also pointed out Wednesday in “Studio Biznes” on Gazeta.pl. But there are many indications that the views of Kotecki and Tyrowicz will not find a majority on the Monetary Policy Council.
President NBP In last week’s press conference, Adam Glapiński spoke rather of the lack of an increase in October or a symbolic one – of 25 basis points. Another MPC member, Ireneusz Dąbrowski, made it clear that in his opinion the cycle of rate hikes is over. Henryk Wnorowski also spoke about the upcoming or even existing end of the series. In light of previous statements or votes by, for example, Wiesław Janczyk or Przemysław Litwiniuk, it can be assumed that there will be a majority in the MPC due to the lack of a rate hike in October or just its modest scale.
It is worth mentioning that the MPC currently has eight members. To approve a certain decision, the consent of at least five or four of them is required, provided that the president of the NBP is included in this group.
- Read more about the economy on the home page Gazeta.pl
Tyrowicz: We have high rates, but their effect on the economy is smaller
prof. Tyrowicz on TVN24 also assessed that interest rates have so far been raised in too many steps. Increase in the main NBP rate by 0.10 percent. up to 6.75 percent The MPC took eleven meetings.
I’m not saying you have to go from 0 to 6% right away, but going through eleven steps doesn’t make sense. This reduces the effectiveness of the foot lift. We land with high tariffs but their effect on the economy is less
– said the member of the MPC. Again – a similar phrase was underlined by Ludwik Kotecki in “Studio Biznes” in Gazeta.pl. He called some of the rate hikes in the first half of the year “ticklish”. It is worth pointing out that at meetings in May and June Kotecki filed motions for rate hikes of 1 percentage point, but all other MPC members voted against (they eventually “passed” rate hikes of 0.75 percentage points. ).
- Help Ukraine, join the collection. Deposit money on the website pcpm.org.pl/ukraine
The MPC member also assessed on TVN24 that the credibility of the NBP chairman is low. – Glapiński expressed many views that were not supported by the data – Tyrowicz said.
Monetary policy in Poland is now toothless because, firstly, the president of the NBP cannot communicate anything, because nobody believes him, and secondly, its effectiveness is weakened by the fiscal actions of the government
– Tyrowicz rated. He added that “just two weeks ago we had budget assumptions and yesterday there was another announcement about the addition money freezing sec power.
Modeling it is difficult, it is a kind of chaos, a rush of new ideas. Man will make a prediction, and tomorrow it is no longer valid
– MPC member added.
Tyrowicz also assessed that “pouring money on everyone is absurd”.
It is one thing to alleviate the costs of inflation for those families who need it, and another thing is “helicopter money”, which is to spread money into the economy.
– has indicated. Questioned about the expected peak inflation Tyrowicz stated that “if he had had a glass ball, he would have carried it”. However, he did not rule out that we would reach 20% inflation in Poland.
The MPC member also assessed that mobilizing funds from the EU Reconstruction Fund would result in lower inflation. However, he insisted not to overdo this narrative.
If these funds were sent to Poland, they would strengthen the zloty, thus weakening the inflationary impulse associated with importing goods into Poland. But this money doesn’t solve all the problems
Tyrowicz said. Furthermore, he did not hide the fact that the Poles will face an even more difficult period.
There will be an economic slowdown, there will be a more difficult situation, less investment, less job creation, less wage growth, less chance of people entering and returning to the market to find work. The direction is definitely downhill
– indicated the member of the MPC.
–
