ORA modeling of the evolution of the coronavirus makes collective well-being dependent on individual behavior, according to the study carried out by Cristina Tejel, researcher at the Institute of Chemical Synthesis and Homogeneous Catalysis (ISQCH), on the day-to-day life of infectious disease COVID-19 in Aragon, which has used the Gompertz Mathematical Model (Wo form), a model widely used in Biology or Medicine, as well as in the spread of epidemics.
The evolution of the coronavirus in Aragon has followed the same pattern that could be expected from an analysis of the population growth of animals, bacteria, or tumors. In all of them, an important variable that determines how the system grows is its ‘growth constant’, which largely depends on the quantity, quality and accessibility of the nutrients it needs. In the analogous case of the spread of an epidemic, nutrients are healthy people (or susceptible to being infected): of the order of 1,400,000 Aragonese and Aragonese in our case.
In the first days of the pandemic, san healthy people ’maintained a normal life circulating freely, so the access of the virus to its‘ nutrients ’can be said to be 100%. It is not surprising that the number of new infected people grew almost exponentially, as shown by the blue curve, which reflects the evolution of the pandemic if measures are not taken.
The effects produced by the confinement of the past March 15, are observed from March 28. During the first week of confinement, the initial growth constant was slowed considerably, reaching less than half (41% compared to the blue curve), since transmission was considerably hindered, starting the path along the green path. In the second week of this first confinement, the population was even more aware, which allowed reaching the yellow model, which represents that the level of infections is only 39% of that expected if measures had not been taken.
Since then, and with some other ups and downs, the number of infections by COVID-19 has remained on the yellow curve, which, if continued, will lead to two or three new cases (PCR +) by early June and to zero cases. of contagion by coronavirus by mid-July. “Now,” as Cristina Tejel, researcher author of the study, indicates, “if hygiene and social distancing measures are not taken care of, the Aragonese population will once again return to another less smooth curve, with negative consequences for all. Collective well-being may never have depended as much on individual behavior as it does now. ”
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