ILLUSTRATION. Entering the second half of 2020, the JCI will still be colored by a variety of sentiments both from within the country and from abroad.
Reporter: Akhmad Suryahadi | Editor: Khomarul Hidayat
KONTAN.CO.ID – JAKARTA. The first semester of 2020 will end soon. However, since the beginning of the year or year-to-date (ytd) until Friday (6/26), the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) still gives return negative, which is -22.15%.
From the beginning of the year, foreign investors are still recording net sell foreign. Launching RTI, foreign funds that have fled the stock market in the country reached Rp. 31.42 trillion in the regular market and Rp. 14.59 trillion in all markets (all market).
Entering the second half of 2020, analysts estimate that the JCI will still be colored by various sentiments both from within the country and from abroad. Panin Sekuritas analyst William Hartanto said that one of the main sentiments that would determine the direction of the JCI was the issuer’s financial statements in the second quarter of 2020.
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This is because the issuer’s financial statements in the second quarter of 2020 will prove the market players’ assumptions regarding the effect of the corona pandemic (Covid-19) on the issuer’s performance. This cannot be separated from the delay of the government in handling the pandemic since the beginning of its emergence in Indonesia on March 2, 2020.
“The second quarter of 2020 report will prove the assumptions regarding the effects of the new pandemic that will be seen there. Because in the first quarter of 2020, the government was a little late in handling Covid-19, large-scale social restrictions (PSBB) and other treatments have not been implemented, “William told Kontan.co.id, Friday (26/6).
Internal sentiment that is no less strong in driving the JCI in the second semester is the continuation of the Jiwasraya mega corruption case. This will make market participants inclined wait and see. For the record, the Attorney General’s Office (AGO) announced the existence of 13 investment managers (MI) who were allegedly involved in the Jiwasraya case which cost the country more than Rp 12 trillion.
In addition, the clarity about the continuation of the PSBB will also be a concern of the market entering the second half of 2020. Thus, these domestic sentiments, according to William, have a stronger influence in driving the JCI.
While externally, the continued discovery of the Covid-19 vaccine will also be of concern to market participants. The tension of the trade war between the United States and China and the warming of China’s relations with India are also a concern of market participants. ‘
William said, technically the JCI has the potential to weaken, which forms a rising wedge pattern which is a bearish pattern. The MA indicator has also experienced a dead cross which further confirms the existence of indications of weakness for the CSPI.
William estimates JCI will move in the range of 4,774-5,157 for the next month. While until the end of the year, he projected JCI will be in the range of 5,100 – 5,334.
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