[The Epoch Times, 8 gennaio 2023]Due to insufficient consumer demand, there is a surplus of raw milk in China.Hebei、Mainland Mongolia、ShandongThe phenomenon of “dumping milk and killing cows” has appeared in many areas. Many insiders predict that the price of raw milk could continue its downward trend in 2023.
A man from Suzhou City, Anhui Province, has been growing up for more than 30 yearsthe cowOfdairy farmerLao Li told Beijing Business Daily: “Onethe cowThe daily feed rate is about 80 yuan. Nobody collects the milk. A pasture with dozens of cows can lose hundreds of thousands of yuan a month. With the hope of not seeing a good market in the short term, cows can only be killed to sell beef Stop the loss in time. “
At present, northern regions with large dairy farms and sufficient supply, such asHebei、Mainland Mongolia、ShandongThe phenomenon of “dumping the milk and killing the cows” started in other places.
Supply continues to increase, but lack of consumer demand leads to a temporary surplus of raw milk. According to the Financial Associated Press, by the end of 2022, the price of raw milk was down 6% from its highest point two years ago. Currently, most of the small and medium-sized farms are already overwhelmed by the background of high costs and weak demand. The price of raw milk is expected to continue to decline in 2023, and farm losses may further increase.
“Beijing Business Daily” reported, “Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Shandong and other places in the northern region have already started to experience the ‘milk dumping and cow killing’ phenomenon in 2015.”dairy farmerLao Li said that there are too many dairy cows and breeding milk, and the price of 3.85 yuan/kg can’t make much money, even if the downstream demand can’t keep up.
Lao Li started raising dairy cows in 1984 and started working as a dairy cow distributor in 2020. He traveled all over the country to buy dairy cows and sold them to different channels according to their appearance.
Lao Li said, “I have a customer on a ranch in Shanghai. There is no company that collects milk. Now I pay hundreds of thousands of yuan a month. I see no hope that the market will improve in the short term. I have already sold less than half of the cows. I can only say that you don’t have to lose money if you sell the cows, but selling the dairy cows as beef cattle doesn’t compensate the loss.
Regarding the situation in the northern market mentioned by Lao Li, Zhang Mingyan, head of Inner Mongolia Dewang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry Technology Co., Ltd., said that Dewang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry mainly sells dairy cows in all parts of the country. more than 1,000 dairy cows produce milk, but due to the market decline, nearly half of the dairy cows have been converted to beef cattle in the past six months, but the market of beef and dairy cattle is not good, and almost no cows and milk are collected.
The double holiday feast has not actually increased the demand for raw milk. According to the Financial Associated Press, as of December 21, the price of fresh milk in the top 10 producing areas, including Inner Mongolia and Hebei, was 4.12 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 4. 2%.
The main reason for the continued decline in the price of raw milk is that weak demand has led to periodic oversupply.
Looking ahead, many industry experts predict that the price of raw milk may continue its downward trend in 2023. Dairy industry expert Song Liang said, “Domestic raw milk is determined by the ratio of demand supply of mid to high end dairy products.The current decline in the overall demand for mid to high end dairy products will inevitably lead to a drop in the price of raw milk.Now many livestock farms are already subsidizing agriculture Next year, raw milk from small and medium-sized farms The purchase volume will continue to decline, and the price of raw milk is expected to decrease below 3.8 yuan/kg.”
Responsible editor: Li Bing #
