Dr Saïd EL Kettani (Medical Specialist in Internal Medicine, liberal sector, Settat)
Epidemiological situation in Morocco
As of July 25, 2022, a total of 1,258,018 confirmed cases have been recorded, out of a total of 12,181,317 tests carried out. The cumulative incidence being 3327.09/100,000 inhabitants. With a weekly incidence, per 100,000 inhabitants, an average of 27.26 ± 37.66 cases [1-180,35]. The first daily peak of 6,195 cases was recorded on November 12, 2020, the second peak of 12,039 cases was recorded on August 05, 2021, and the third peak was recorded on January 19, 2022 with 9,355 daily cases. The fourth peak of 4009 cases was recorded on June 28, 2022.
The evolution was characterized by 16,215 (1.29%) deaths and 1,234,176 (98.1%) recoveries. Among the cases detected, 7,627 were still active and would constitute a risk of transmission if the prevention measures were not well respected (Table 1).
Evolution of “waves”
As shown in Figure 1, since the start of the pandemic, we have distinguished 4 major waves. The second was related to the delta variant. The last 2 are related to omicron. We notice that they are less important, more abrupt (more explosive) and shorter. The delta wave lasted 16 weeks, while the first omicron wave lasted only 10 weeks. The waves are spaced out by more or less long intercritical phases.
The current wave or 4th big wave started on May 19, 2022 with 124 cases. The current peak was recorded on June 28, 2022 with 4009 cases. The numbers are going down!
Figure 1: Weekly evolution of new cases of COVID-19, from the start of the pandemic to July 24, 2022 in Morocco
Situation of Morocco compared to other countries
Morocco is positioned at 56th global place. It carried out a number of tests reported to 1 million inhabitants, low compared to European countries, Jordan and Lebanon. It has recorded a number of cases per 1 million inhabitants lower than the global figure and lower than all other countries apart from Algeria and Egypt.
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The fatality rate of 1.29% recorded in Morocco is certainly higher than in Spain, France, Jordan and Lebanon but it remains lower compared to the world average, Algeria, Tunisia and Egypt. It should be remembered that the European fatality rates decreased significantly during this omicron wave, thus on September 06, 2021 the respective rates were in France, Spain, Italy and Morocco: 1.68%, 1.74%, 2 .83% and only 1.48%.
Table 1: Epidemiological situation of COVID-19, from the start of the pandemic to July 25, 2022 in Morocco compared to Algeria, Egypt, Spain, France, Jordan, Lebanon, Italy and Tunisia
| Monde | France | Italy | Spain | Jordan | Morocco | Lebanon | Tunisia | Egypt | Algeria | |
| Number of inhabitants | 65570834 | 60278845 | 46792054 | 10411690 | 37811378 | 6762548 | 12073249 | 106308655 | 45481492 | |
| Total des tests | 271490188 | 235341178 | 471036328 | 16981984 | 12181317 | 4795578 | 4803289 | 3693367 | 230861 | |
| Positivity rate | 12,36% | 8,79% | 2,80% | 10,07% | 10,33% | 24,18% | 23,20% | 13,96% | 115,62% | |
| Incidence of testing per 100,000 population | 414 0411 | 390 420,8 | 1 006 658,8 | 163 105,0 | 32 216,0 | 70 913,8 | 39 784,6 | 3 474,2 | 507,6 | |
| Nb tests pour 1M pop | 4140411 | 3904208 | 10066588 | 1631050 | 322160 | 709138 | 397846 | 34742 | 5076 | |
| Total name of cas COVID-19 | 576249565 | 33543457 | 20684182 | 13204863 | 1709879 | 1258018 | 1159629 | 1114370 | 515645 | 266916 |
| Nb cas pour 1M pop | 73927400 | 511561 | 343142 | 282203 | 164227 | 33271 | 171478 | 92301 | 4850 | 5869 |
| Position | 4 | 7 | 11 | 47 | 56 | 60 | 61 | 89 | 104 | |
| Cumulative incidence per 100,000 population | 51156,06 | 34314,16 | 28220,31 | 16422,68 | 3327,09 | 17147,81 | 9230,08 | 485,05 | 586,87 | |
| Total number of deaths | 6405292 | 151560 | 170979 | 110187 | 14074 | 16215 | 10512 | 28942 | 24613 | 6876 |
| Number of deaths per 1M pop | 821700 | 2311 | 2836 | 2355 | 1352 | 429 | 1554 | 2397 | 232 | 151 |
| Case fatality rate | 1,11% | 0,45% | 0,83% | 0,83% | 0,82% | 1,29% | 0,91% | 2,60% | 4,77% | 2,58% |
We observe in Figure 2 that the 3 European countries recorded 6 large waves. The last 3 waves related to omicron were much larger than the previous ones, especially in France and Italy. Like Morocco, these two countries have not yet flattened their curve, that is to say they have not yet entered the inter-critical phase.
Figure 2: Weekly evolution of the incidence of new cases of COVID-19, from the start of the pandemic to July 24, 2022 in Morocco, Spain, France and Italy
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