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Chinese hardly buy new homes anymore

01 augustus 2022

14:19

The Chinese real estate market is in sackcloth. New home sales plummeted 40 percent. More and more Chinese are refusing to repay their mortgage loans.

Despite numerous support measures, Beijing is not getting the motor of its real estate market going again. The turnover of the 100 largest property developers in the housing market fell 40 percent in July to $78 billion. Over the first seven months of the year, sales plummeted 49 percent.

The main cause is the persistent oversupply. Developers built mega-projects with dirt-cheap credit, which found fewer and fewer buyers. Half ghost towns in China are empty.

The sector is struggling with sky-high debtswhich are getting worse every month due to the mortgage boycott of buyers who still refuse to pay for unfinished homes. In China it is common for apartments to be sold before they are completed. Buyers in at least 100 deferred projects in more than 50 cities have stopped paying off. According to investment bank Jeffferies, these mortgages represent about 1 percent of the number of home loans in China.

Evergrande

Stocks like Guangzou R&F Properties and the market leader Country Garden Holdings are again flirting with their lowest level in years. The lack of a restructuring plan for shaky real estate giant Evergrande, which was promised before the end of July, also weighed on sentiment.

Beijing is trying to prop up the sector with lower interest rates and more flexible repayment mechanisms. “But the priority is on finishing homes to avoid social unrest, not on the financial health of developers,” said Bloomberg real estate analyst Daniel Fan.

Office and retail real estate is also failing. Banking giant HSBC is setting aside an additional $12 billion to absorb losses in its commercial real estate portfolio in China. According to the bank, a third of its assets are ‘substandard’. Read: a possible sale would yield much less than the loan for the properties, while the owners have difficulties paying off their credit.

“We may still be a few quarters away from when we can say the worst is over,” said Ewen Stevenson, chief financial officer. “And we have no exposure to unfinished real estate.” Outside of the Chinese dip, HSBC was able to deliver better-than-expected quarterly figures.

12 billion

extra reserve for chinese real estate

The banking giant HSBC is setting aside an additional $12 billion to absorb bad real estate loans in China.

S&P Global Ratings estimates that in the worst case scenario, 6.7 percent of China’s mortgages will not be repaid. Real estate represents one fifth of the Chinese economy. On Monday, it was also announced that the Chinese economy contracted slightly in July, according to the purchasing managers’ index PMI.

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