Berlin. The number of recorded deaths related to the coronavirus has skyrocketed to a new high. Within one day, the German health authorities sent the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) 952 new deaths, according to the RKI figures from Wednesday morning. In addition, 27,728 new infections have been recorded. However, the data from Tuesday did not contain any figures from Saxony, which is why the new figures could also contain late registrations, as it was said. Last Wednesday (December 9th) 20,815 new infections and 590 deaths were reported. The previous highs of 29,875 reported cases and 598 deaths were reached on Friday.
The seven-day R-value is 1.06
The trend in the number of daily deaths had recently gone up, which was also expected after the steep increase in new infections. On Tuesday, the number of newly reported deaths was 500 and thus, even without the missing Saxon data, the third highest value since the beginning of the pandemic. The total number of people who died with or involving a documented Sars-CoV-2 infection rose to 23,427 as of Wednesday.
The seven-day incidence, which is decisive for assessing the situation – the new infections reported per 100,000 inhabitants within seven days – also reached a new high of 179.8. On Tuesday this value was 173.7. The missing data from Saxony only influenced the value slightly, according to the RKI.
Since the beginning of the pandemic, the RKI has counted 1,379,238 detected infections with Sars-CoV-2 in Germany (as of December 16, 12 a.m.). It is estimated that around 1,025,000 people have now recovered.
The R-value calculated daily by the RKI denotes the effective reproduction number. It is an expression of the balance between the infection-avoiding behavior of the population and the infectivity of the virus itself. The estimate relates to the situation from about one and a half weeks ago. In order to avoid exponential growth, the value should be stable below the critical limit of one.
The nationwide seven-day R-value was 1.06 according to the RKI management report on Monday (previous day: 1.12). This means that 100 infected people theoretically infect 106 more people. On Tuesday evening, the RKI gave the value as 0.98, but it can only be used to a limited extent due to pending data determinations. The value represents the occurrence of the infection 8 to 16 days ago. Only when it is below one for a long time does it decrease.
When assessing the measures, the capacities of intensive care beds, equipment and staff are also important. The German Interdisciplinary Association for Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine (DIVI) last recorded 4735 corona patients who have to be treated in intensive care in 1290 hospitals in Germany. 57 percent of corona intensive care patients have to be artificially ventilated. In addition, DIVI recorded 22,471 intensive care beds occupied. 4682 beds are still available.
This must be taken into account when assessing the infection situation
On November 11th, the RKI changed its recommendations for the test criteria. This means that only people with severe, corona-typical symptoms and contact persons of Covid 19 patients should be tested. This could increase the number of unreported coronaviruses because infected people with mild symptoms are no longer recorded.
The number of corona tests has risen continuously since the beginning of the pandemic. More than 13.4 million tests had been carried out in Germany by the beginning of September. With the new test strategy, the number decreases again. In the first week of November there were around 1.6 million corona tests, and around 1.3 million in mid-November.
The positive rate also plays a role in assessing the infection rate in Germany. This key figure indicates how many of the corona tests carried out are actually positive. If the positive rate increases, this is an indication that the infection rate could increase.
Every Wednesday the RKI publishes the newly calculated positive rate in its situation report. The quota has been increasing since the beginning of September: While 0.86 percent of the tests were positive in the 37th calendar week (7 to 13 September), according to the changed test strategy in mid-November it was 9 percent. In the 47th calendar week (November 16-22) it was 9.4 percent.
A positive corona test says nothing about infectivity
If a corona test turns out positive, it means that those tested have been infected with Sars-CoV-2. However, it does not mean that they are also infectious and can infect others. The level of infection risk depends on the amount of virus.
The virus concentration describes the so-called Ct value. The higher this figure, the lower the virus concentration and the less likely it is that the infected can infect other people. The RKI points out that the Ct value can vary depending on the sampling and test method.
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