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The big Wall Street banks have predicted a recession in the US this year.
There were also predictions that the Fed might start cutting rates in the second half of the year due to the economic downturn.
Correspondent Sujin Kim in Washington.
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Wall Street pundits predicted that the US Fed’s high-intensity rate-hiking effect, which continued last year, would kick in this year.
The Wall Street Journal polled experts from 23 major financial firms, including Bank of America and Barkley’s, and 70% of 16 financial firms responded that the US will experience a recession this year.
He said the impact of last year’s austerity will be reflected with a lag this year and the economy will contract, citing the decline in Americans’ ability to consume, the sluggish housing market and tougher lending standards aside. of banks as warning signs.
[샘 스토발/투자전략가]
“Basically, we think a recession is likely. I don’t think the Fed is going to make a soft landing for the economy.”
Experts expect next year’s GDP growth rate to fall below 1%, far below the average growth rate of 2.1% over the past decade.
Goldman Sachs, which has the most optimistic outlook for the US economy, has also forecast next year’s growth rate to be just 1%.
Because of this, most of the big banks expected the Fed to continue raising interest rates through the first half of the year, but start cutting them in the second half.
As a result, there is a chance that equity and bond markets, which were sluggish last year, will recover to some extent this year.
Most banks surveyed expected the S&P 500 to be about 5% higher this year than at the end of last year.
This is MBC News Kim Soo-jin from Washington.
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