Oneslight slowing of the curve epidemic. This is the good news that emerges from the independent monitoring of the Gimbe Foundation. For the rest, however, the picture is worrying especially as regards the number of deaths in this one second wave of coronavirus. In the week 4-10 November, compared to the previous one, victims grew by 70% reaching an altitude of three thousand ( 2.918 against the 1,712 deaths of the previous seven days). All the indicators on the widespread circulation of the epidemic in the country are increasing: the number of new cases (235,634 against 195,051), and tampons (872,026 vs 817,717) and the positive / cases tested ratio reaches 27% (last week it was 23.9%). The currently positives grow by 41%i (590.110 against 418.142 of the previous seven days). The situation in hospitals is also further complicated: the hospitalized patients with symptoms (28,633, + 35% more than the previous week) and those tintensive therapy reached 2,971 (+ 33%). “The increase in currently positives is reflected in the number of patients hospitalized with symptoms and in intensive care, with hospitals getting closer to saturation, as well as in the number of deaths, which in the last week exceeded 2,900” he explains Nino Cartabellotta, president of the Gimbe Foundation.
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The hospital beds
Compared to the previous week in almost all Regions there is a slight slowdown in the percentage increase in cases which in the best hypothesis could depend on the effect of the containment measures introduced at the end of October. Or it could be a consequence of the saturation of testing capacity, as currently positive cases continue to increase everywhere. They cause concern hospital occupancy rates: in 11 Regions the saturation threshold was exceeded 40% of the beds in the medical area and in other 11 Regions that of 30% for intensive care.
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Healthcare workers
Another data to be monitored carefully is the number of infected health workers Since “in the last 30 days – explains the President – occurred 19,217 contagions, compared to 1,650 in the previous 30 days. In addition to the risk of hospital outbreaks, in nursing homes and in protected environments, the impact on health personnel, already lacking in staff as well as experienced by the first wave, is of concern ”
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“The Rt index is a rearview mirror”
Gimbe’s second wave monitoring was presented on November 10 to the House Social Affairs Committee. Cartabellotta reiterated the need to make available in an open and detailed format and noted the criticality of the monitoring system of the pandemic which then determines the government choices. The limited timeliness – due to data collection times and increasing notification delays by the Regions – favors the virus’ run. Not only that: “The color of a Region is decided on the basis of two main parameters: the Rt index and risk classification through i 21 indicators. Ma the Rt value is inappropriate for informing quick decisions because, photograph a picture of the infections relating to 2-3 weeks before and it has numerous limitations »explains Cartabellotta. In short, according to the president of Gimbe, “The Rt index uses the rearview mirror instead of binoculars” and “slows down the timeliness and extent of measures to contain the epidemic curve”. For these reasons, «The monitoring system it is not an adequate decision-making tool. Without an immediate change of course on the evaluation criteria and on the corresponding restrictions, only a total lockdown will be able to avoid collapse »concludes Cartabellotta.
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12 November 2020 (change 12 November 2020 | 11:06)
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