■ Presenter: host Jun-Seok Ho, host Seon-Young Kim
■ Appearance: Bong Young-sik, researcher at Yonsei University
* The following text may differ from the actual broadcast content, so check the broadcast for more accurate content. Citation [YTN 뉴스특보-이태원 참사] Please specify.
[앵커]
Recent missile launches and showers, plus ICBMs and South NLL deliveries. Do you think it is a very systematic and planned provocation?
[봉영식]
There appears to have been an instruction to react violently and to react immediately at the level of Secretary General Kim Jong-un. Shouldn’t that be something we should be analyzing for the sudden launch of several missiles with uncertain success at the cost of feeding North Koreans for two years?
If so, in the meantime there has been something that has touched the North Korean regime. North Korea is reacting very violently to this. From our point of view, this may be a cause of instability on the Korean peninsula, but on the other hand, which one makes the North Korean regime difficult and painful? It can be a very important strategic information and resource.
[앵커]
Type Hwasong-17 was dubbed a monstrous ICBM because it had the longest range in the world for a mobile launcher, but of course it hadn’t been successful yet. The Hwasong-15 I had before was aimed at roughly the same level as San Francisco, in the United States. And 17 is aimed at Washington or New York. It’s correct?
[봉영식]
In theory, yes. But there are two things. The nuclear warhead is very heavy, but will it guarantee that range even when mounted? Second, will the United States, the target, stand still? Or, when the big Hwasong-15s or Hwasong-17s are preparing to strike the United States and show signs, will US Army reconnaissance intelligence miss him and remain silent?
Therefore, it appears that North Korea has made such a strategic judgment that from 2020 we will not only focus on launching ICBMs and nuclear missiles aimed at the United States, but we will also take South Korea hostage to strengthen our negotiating capabilities. . In other words, there were several missile tests in January of this year, right? A hypersonic missile or a North Korean version of the Atakim, these are short and medium range missiles.
Don’t hit the United States. So, so far, they have pursued big deals like the Trump-Kim Jong-un summit with the US hostage, but after the February 2019 Hanoi summit ended with a no-deal, it appears they are focusing on development. a tactical nuclear missile capability that takes South Korea hostage.
[앵커]
As mentioned above, there are many opinions like this that the cost of a missile provocation is also mysterious. There is talk of about 100 billion won in the cost of firing 20 shots the other day. Are you in a situation where you can afford that cost now, North Korea?
[봉영식]
It is not the North Koreans who decide this. It is the North Korean regime. If the life of the current government is at stake, 100 billion won is nothing. In 2012, after Kim Jong-un, then chairman of the Commission on State Affairs, became the new leader, did he not test artificial satellites and ICBMs?
However, the test ended in complete failure. It couldn’t last three minutes in the air, and the cost of the failed ICBM test was enough to buy wheat, enough to feed North Koreans for a year. However, the North Korean regime did not give up and succeeded in the next test. If you can afford it as you said it is a matter of the North Korean regime, not a decision of the people, due to the nature of the North Korean system.
※ ‘Your report becomes news’
[카카오톡] Search on YTN to add a channel
[전화] 02-398-8585
[메일] [email protected]
[저작권자(c) YTN 무단전재 및 재배포 금지]
