Enter 2020.12.30 16:30
Intensification of the poor and the poor by income class
Expanding the introduction of telecommuting and robots, as a major issue of climate change
2020 was the year the world struggled with a new virus called Corona. Even if the global economy is on track as the vaccine spreads in earnest next year, some of the changes triggered by the corona are expected to persist for at least several years. On the 30th (local time), Bloomberg summarized the top 10 global economic changes that will continue after the coronavirus.
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After the corona pandemic (a global pandemic), it has become not unusual for governments to track where and who the people meet. Things that many governments have avoided since the widespread free market economy, such as paying workers on behalf of difficult companies, have also been implemented.
Global consulting firm McKinsey estimates that this year, the global government added a fiscal deficit of $11 trillion (2,000 trillion won). In developed countries, debates over whether such fiscal expenditure should continue to expand and how to raise financial resources are being discussed, but at least the outlook is that there will be no short-term impact on the financial market. The modern monetary theory (MMT) philosopher’s argument that the surge in government debt does not have a major impact on the economy is empowering.
◇ Central bank, taking money and taking another
This year, the world’s central banks printed a lot of money at a record level, and interest rates were at record lows. They continue to expand their financial easing policies to buy corporate bonds as well as government debt. There are criticisms that these policies have inflated demand for speculation, but a shift in policy direction is expected to be difficult as the job market is still stagnant and companies are saving money.
◇ Debt explosion, zombie company
The International Settlement Bank (BIS) estimates that the size of corporate bonds for non-financial companies in the first half of this year surged to $3.6 trillion in the first half of this year as governments provided credit to companies on the verge of bankruptcy. The so-called zombie companies that cannot survive on their own without government intervention have also increased rapidly. Their survival leads the world economy to a less productive direction.
◇ Great Divides
The debate over how much to boost the economy was a luxury for developing countries. They didn’t have enough money to invest in vaccines, let alone resources to protect their jobs and businesses, so they had to tighten their belts and watch financial market unrest. The major 20 countries (G20) faced each other to reduce the debt burden of poor countries, but failed to reduce the actual burden.
◇ K-shaped impact
The most affected by the economic shock from the coronavirus were low-wage workers working face-to-face with consumers. They were placed on the top list of layoffs as the city blockade began, while the wealthy gained more wealth as the stock market strengthened. As a graph, the assets of the wealthy are oriented upward, but the low-income class has a’K-shape’. Some studies show that women suffered more damage than men.
◇ The gain of robots
As social distancing is strengthened, the introduction of robots has spread around industries where face-to-face contact with customers is inevitable, such as retail and hospitality. During the pandemic, companies introduced robots for hotel check-in, salad cutting, and ticket office billing. The shopping tribe has moved from offline to online. While these changes increase the productivity of the economy, they play a role in pushing some workers out of the labor market for a long time.
◇ Mute work (work from home)
The higher the income job, the more common it is to work from home. According to one study, two-thirds of the US gross domestic product (GDP) in the month of May came from working from home. The stock price of video conferencing platform company Zoom has risen six times this year. The spread of telecommuting has led to lower real estate prices in some city centers and higher real estate prices in suburban and suburban areas.
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According to the United Nations (UN), by October this year, the size of global tourism has decreased by 72% from last year. McKinsey predicted that a quarter of business trips would be replaced online and disappear forever. If you plan to travel or travel in the future, you may need to have a health certificate stating that you are not infected with the coronavirus or have a so-called vaccine passport proving that you have been vaccinated.
◇ New globalization
As China, which served as the world’s factory, closed the city in a pandemic earlier this year, manufacturing around the world suffered a huge supply chain damage. As a result, governments are pursuing policies to transfer supply chains from China to other countries or countries. Experts explain that globalization is an example of adapting to the changed environment instead of retreating.
◇ Climate change
Corona has shown that the world can always be exposed to new types of threats that have never been experienced, and the consequences can be disastrous. This is the background that countries are struggling to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that have been delayed since the coronavirus. The election of Joe Biden of the United States, who values climate change, is also expected to accelerate this trend.
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