16.11.2020 – 17:04
Genossenschaftsverband – Association of Regions eV
Poll: calm before the storm? So far, only a few corporate customers of the Volksbanken and Raiffeisenbanken have been severely affected by the effects of the corona pandemic
Commercial loans grow in the first three quarters of 2020 at the previous year’s level
The Volksbanken and Raiffeisenbanken indicate the proportion of their own corporate customers who are currently particularly badly affected by the economic effects of the Corona crisis, rather low. According to a survey by the cooperative association among the member institutes in 14 federal states, 38 percent of those surveyed say it is below five percent, and another 39 percent see it as between six and ten percent. Just over one percent of the banks assume that more than half of the corporate customers are affected. In line with these results, only 13 percent of banks state that they have raised lending standards due to the corona pandemic. Another nine percent want to do this in the future. “By the end of the third quarter, the Volksbanken and Raiffeisenbanken had increased their volume in the commercial lending business by 5.1 percent, roughly at the previous year’s level. The survey results show that this is not a loan resulting from the plight of the pandemic, ”emphasizes Ingmar Rega, CEO of the cooperative association. “The Volksbanken and Raiffeisenbanken are watching the development very closely, because nobody can foresee the course of the Corona crisis. The focus is on whether the customers have sustainable, viable business models in order to then benefit from an economic recovery that will hopefully soon occur. ”
Considerable long-term consequences for the banking industry are expected
The survey participants expect the coronavirus crisis to have significant long-term consequences for banks when the current regulatory relief and state aid for the economy as a whole and companies expire. 58 percent expect large, a further twelve percent even very large long-term consequences. “In view of the high level of uncertainty about the medium-term effects, it is important that the ECB – especially because of the further expansion of the expansionary monetary policy it has announced for December – relieves the regional banks. This makes sense in order to further strengthen their high lending capacity, ”emphasizes Rega. “87 percent of the bank executives who took part in the survey see a need for action here.” Due to monetary policy and the increased savings rate due to Corona, the deposit volumes invested at the ECB rise again significantly. The banks must pay negative interest on these after deducting allowances. Rega: “An increase in the tax exemptions for paying penalty interest on deposits at the central bank would be an important step here.”
Only 13 percent believe that the partial lockdown will end on schedule
70 percent of the 360 member banks took part in the survey, which was scheduled at short notice due to the partial lockdown, between November 10th and 12th. Only 13 percent of those surveyed believe that this will be eased as planned at the beginning of December. 57 percent expect it to last at least until the end of December, and another quarter until at least the end of January. In view of these expectations for the next few months, it is important that the evaluation of the federal government’s measures to support small and medium-sized enterprises is positive: 78 percent of bank executives consider them appropriate. This also reflects the assessment of the effectiveness of these measures among the company’s own corporate customers, which is roughly equally positive.
Mit freundlichen Grüßen i. V. Dr. Volker Hetterich Genossenschaftsverband – Verband der Regionen e.V. Bereich Kommunikation & Change Verwaltungssitz Neu-Isenburg Wilhelm-Haas-Platz, 63263 Neu-Isenburg Telefon: +49 69 6978-3163, Fax: +49 69 6978-423163 Mobil: +49 172 6957384 E-Mail: [email protected]
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