NYMEX crude oil still looks at $81.63
International oil prices pulled back on Friday (July 28), but were on track to rise for a fifth straight week on the back of strong U.S. economic data, Chinese stimulus measures and expectations of OPEC+ production cuts. NYMEX crude oil is still looking at $81.63.
At 16:22 Beijing time, NYMEX crude oil futures fell 0.30% to $79.86/barrel; ICE Brent crude futures fell 0.37% to $83.47/barrel. The two cities have risen nearly 4% this week.
Oil prices rose on Thursday (July 27) after data released overnight showed that the U.S. economy grew faster than expected in the second quarter; coupled with China’s previous announcement that it would take further stimulus measures, eased concerns about a global economic slowdown.
The U.S. Commerce Department said on Thursday that U.S. gross domestic product grew 2.4 percent in the second quarter, beating market expectations of 1.8 percent, supporting Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s view that the economy can achieve a so-called “soft landing.”
Baden Moore, head of commodities at National Australia Bank, said: “We continue to see oil prices rising in the third quarter of 2023 and expect () to remain above $90 a barrel before we see OPEC or Saudi Arabia relax voluntary production cuts.”
The market is focused on the next meeting of the market monitoring committee of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) on August 4, which may announce an extension of voluntary production cuts. But recent interest rate hikes by global central banks to curb stubborn inflation still raise questions about long-term demand. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday as scheduled, and the European Central Bank followed suit on Thursday.
Jun Rong Yeap, market strategist at IG in Singapore, said: “The recent U.S. second-quarter GDP data and other economic data have further validated hopes of a soft landing and painted a brighter outlook for oil demand…but oil prices do appear to be facing challenges from Some pressure on the broader risk environment.”
Data earlier this week showed U.S. crude stockpiles fell less than expected. “We still haven’t seen much of an impact from increased product demand, especially in distillates, which has provided most of the upside over the past month,” said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates LLC in Illinois.
On the daily line, NYMEX crude oil started an upward wave III trend from 73.78, and the upper resistance looked at the 76.4% target of $81.63 and the 85.4% target of $82.56. On the hourly chart, oil prices started an upward ((3)) wave trend from US$74.52, with the upper resistance at the 238.2% target at US$81.88. ((3)) Waves are subwaves of wave iii.
2023-07-28 08:23:00
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