Here it is finally, the long-awaited kink in the corona incidence curve that the British had to wait impatiently for. After a rapid rise in the seven-day incidence, which spanned from the end of May to almost the end of July, the situation has now been looking to ease for five days. But appearances could be deceptive.
Sajid Javid, who took over the office of health minister a few weeks ago and last drew criticism with a statement about Corona, certainly knows that. “Please get vaccinated, if you haven’t already, while we are learning to live with the virus instead of ducking away from it,” Javid tweeted on Saturday afternoon.
The organization Covid-19 Bereaved Families for Justice, which represents relatives of those who died of Covid-19, described the comment as “deeply insensitive,” as the BBC reported on Sunday. The criticism related mainly to Javid’s choice of words: He had used the English word “cower”, which in German can be translated as “duck away” or “crouch”.
“Words are important, and the carelessness and carelessness of that statement has caused deep suffering,” said the organization’s co-founder, Jo Goodman. Labor politician David Lammy also criticized Javid and accused him of vilifying people who simply wanted to protect themselves and their families. After all, 129,000 British people died of Covid under the conservative government.
The question that worries many Brits at the moment is: Will many new ones soon be added to these dead?
It cannot be said with certainty at the moment. Mainly because the incidence values are falling again. While the incidence was 502 on July 21, the value had dropped to 432 three days later. Show that Daily mirror numbers. Between July 18 and July 24, a total of 286,863 people had a positive test result. That is a decrease of 4.5 percent compared to the previous week. That goes out UK government data emerge.
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But where does the decrease in incidence values come from? And is it permanent, or will the numbers climb up again soon?
The answer to these questions is not easy. Several influences could act on the curve. One thing is certain: incidences are not falling everywhere in the Kingdom, only in Scotland, while they continue to rise in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Incidences in England, Wales and Northern Ireland continue to rise
In the north east of England, for example, the numbers remain highest and continue to rise rapidly. Conversely, most Scottish municipalities are seeing a decrease in positive cases from week to week.
One reason for the downward Scottish curve could be that the Scots closed schools earlier. That’s what Kit Yates, author and mathematical biologist at the University of Bath, suspects. If the schools are reopened there, too, the curve could take a different route again, he speculates.
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The weather could also play a role in his opinion. In the past few days there were summer temperatures in Great Britain, the sun showed up. That could have resulted in more people getting outside. There, the aerosols are much more difficult to dissipate and the risk of infection is lower.
Fear of “Freedom Day” relaxations
There was also a decrease in the corona tests. A total of 1,013,261 tests were reported on July 22, 4.9 percent fewer than the previous week. And the less testing is done, the fewer positive cases can be registered.
The high numbers of infections, Yates continues, that are still everywhere despite the kink in the curve, or the openings associated with “Freedom Day” celebrated last weekend could have made people more cautious.
Another possibility: the holiday season. Many people are in the middle of the summer vacation and therefore cannot be tested on site. A rise in the curve after the holidaymakers return cannot therefore be ruled out. (with dpa)
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