Annual Report CD Project it is scheduled to be released on Thursday, April 22nd. – We will then know the sales results for 2020, but taking into account that the premiere of the game took place more than four months ago, I think there is a great need on the part of investors to get more current data. I would expect something more than sales data for the game only for the fourth quarter “- told PAP Biznes Maria Mickiewicz, Wood & Company analyst.
On Thursday, CD Projekt released estimated financial results for 2020. Net profit amounted to PLN 1.154 billion, and revenues amounted to PLN 2.139 billion. The results were respectively by 14.4 percent. and 13.7 percent lower than the PAP Biznes consensus.
Lower-than-expected revenues and profits suggest that also sales “Cyberpunk 2077” in 2020 it could turn out to be slightly lower than analysts expected. Experts interviewed by PAP Biznes, however, point out that this may not necessarily be true – as they indicate, the company’s revenues lower than expected may well result, for example, from higher than expected expenditure on advertising before the premiere of the game or reserves for unsold copies of the game in stationary stores.
According to the consensus collected shortly before the publication of the estimated results, analysts predicted that the sales of “Cyberpunk” in 2020 amounted to 13.8-16 million copies, with the average and median of forecasts at 14.7 million.
The last data on sales of the game was released by the company on December 22, i.e. 12 days after the premiere. It was then reported that players had bought over 13 million copies of “Cyberpunk 2077” by December 20, inclusive.
1.2-1.3 million copies of “Cyberpunk 2077” purchased this year.
From the beginning of the year to mid-April, analysts expect sales of “Cyberpunk 2077” in the range of 0.5-2 million copies. The average of these forecasts is 1.23 million copies, and their median is 1.35 million.
Some experts, incl. Emil Popławski from Erste Securities, fears that the sales results of “Cyberpunk 2077” for the first quarter will be confirmed by the recent M Science report. The analyst firm estimated in March the digital sales of “Cyberpunk 2077” in the first quarter at approximately 0.5 million copies. According to Popławski, if sales turn out to be so low, the risk of lowering forecasts for the coming years will increase significantly. The analyst adds that the risk for the forecasts is also posed by two important unknowns: how the company will earn on the multiplayer version of “Cyberpunk” and the sales level of paid add-ons to the game (so-called expansions).
Michał Wojciechowski from Ipopema Securities believes that the current period may be a “hole” in the sale of “Cyberpunk 2077”. In his opinion, when the game is repaired and enriched with new elements, and the price will be slightly lower, the interest of players will increase.
“I would not delete this game yet. The big question mark is how the free add-ons will come out, how much new content will they add, and what level the version for new consoles will present. In the long run, this will determine the sale. Probably the most difficult sales period is now, when a lot of people withhold the purchase due to problems with the game “- he assessed.
Analysts surveyed by PAP Biznes forecast that by the end of 2021, sales of the game will reach 18.5-25.9 million copies, with an average and median forecast of 22.2 million.
According to the forecasts of brokerage houses, a large part of the sales expected in 2021 will fall at the end of the year and be related to the premiere of the version for new consoles, i.e. PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series S / X, which went on sale in November 2020.
Experts estimate that this version could give the game a “second life” at the cost of additional marketing expenses. However, they remind that CD Projekt will not earn a second time on players who bought “Cyberpunk” on PlayStation 4 and Xbox One – they will receive the new version of the game for free.
Will Cyberpunk 2077 return to PlayStation Store after the next patch?
PAP Biznes’s interlocutors see the greatest chance to increase sales of the game in a shorter time when they return to the PlayStation store.
The console producer, Japanese company Sony, removed the digital version of “Cyberpunk 2077” from sale on the PlayStation Store on December 18, due to the technical condition of the game. Investors hoped for the game to return to the store after the release of a large collection of patches, the so-called a patch that hit players on March 29. To date, however, the game has not appeared on PlayStation Store.
Maria Mickiewicz from Wood believes that the improvement in the quality of the game in the last patch is visible. He draws attention to the improvement in the ratings of the game on Steam in recent days – as he indicates, 68 percent in the last 10 days. player reviews are positive against 54 percent. in the 10 days preceding the patch release at the end of March. However, it does not rule out that convincing Sony to put the game back in the store may require another set of fixes.
“From the beginning, we assumed that the return to the Sony store would not be ‘automatic’ with the patch release, but verification may take 2-3 weeks that are just passing,” she said.
According to the expert, the possible return of the game to the PlayStation store could turn out to be “free advertising” for the game.
“In our opinion, this could be a signal to the gaming community, not only Sony console owners, that the game has been significantly improved,” she said.
Mickiewicz believes that many people who have not purchased or purchased the game and have decided to refund their money due to poor technical condition are likely to withhold their purchase until Cyberpunk is repaired.
“This was indicated by numerous comments that appeared during the premiere, among others on social media. Sony’s decision to remove the game from the store was widely echoed, so I assume that returning to the store may also generate some positive media ‘hype’ and attract many people to play, not only PlayStation players, but also owners of Xbox consoles, and even some PC players “- she said.
“The next patch is probably a matter of two months”
According to Michał Wojciechowski, the March fixes – although numerous – did not make the game look better on the basic versions of 2013 consoles. For this reason, according to the analyst, the game will not return to the Sony store in the coming weeks. Wojciechowski believes that the next patch may turn out to be the next chance to return to PlayStation Store. He points out that the game could hit Sony even later, along with the next-gen console release that the market expects in the fourth quarter.
“The next patch is probably a matter of two months or more, I expect it in mid-May or June. Perhaps the chances of returning to PlayStation Store will increase in the middle of the year, but of course it cannot be ruled out that it will not happen until the release of the version. games for a new generation of consoles. I think this is an increasingly likely scenario “- assessed the analyst Ipopema Securites.
Analysts indicate that Cyberpunk’s sales forecasts assumed that the game would return to the PS Store in April – if it does not happen, or is delayed, it may mean lowering the consensus for this year.
“We would probably have to wait for the next patch, which may mean another few months of postponement, and the market could start to discount the risk of the scenario that patching the game on PlayStation 4 will not bring results and there is waiting for a version for the new generation of consoles” – said Biznes Mickiewicz.
On Friday, after the publication of preliminary financial data for the entire last year, CD Projekt shares fell 5.7%. up to PLN 176.76. At the beginning of December last year, a few days before the premiere of “Cyberpunk 2077”, the company’s price was as high as PLN 464.
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