China-Brazil Trade: Deep Ties & Growing Risks Revealed in New Report
São Paulo, Brazil – A newly released study from the China-Brazil Business Council reveals the profound and increasingly complex economic relationship between the two nations. While Brazil enjoys a significant trade surplus with China, the report highlights a critical dependence that could pose risks to long-term economic stability.
The thorough analysis, conducted in partnership with BrazilS Growth, Industry, Trade and Services Ministry, demonstrates how bilateral commerce has exploded in the last two decades, growing nearly fivefold and impacting employment, wages, and social structures across Brazil.
Perhaps surprisingly, the study found that Chinese imports supported 5.2 million jobs in Brazil in 2024 – more then double the number generated by exports to china. This underscores the widespread impact of Chinese goods on Brazilian businesses and communities, even as export-related jobs tend to offer higher salaries.
A Trade Imbalance - and a Warning
China currently accounts for 28% of Brazil’s exports and 24% of its imports. Over the past decade, trade with Beijing has generated a US$276 billion surplus for Brazil, representing 51% of the country’s total global trade surplus. This stands in stark contrast to trade with the United States and the European union, which resulted in a combined deficit of US$224 billion for Brazil.
However, the report’s authors caution against complacency. The substantial surplus is heavily concentrated in a limited number of commodities and companies. In 2024, a staggering 80% of Brazilian exports to China consisted of just three products: soybeans, iron ore, and oil. Moreover, fewer than 3,000 companies are responsible for the vast majority of thes exports.
“It doesn’t matter if its soybeans or machines,” explains Tulio Cariello, Director of Research at the China-Brazil Business council. “The problem is relying on too few products and too few markets.”
This concentration leaves Brazil vulnerable to fluctuations in global commodity prices and shifts in Chinese demand, emphasizing the need for diversification in both its export base and its trading partners. The report serves as a crucial call for strategic planning to ensure a more resilient and balanced economic future for Brazil.
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