Florida Faces Potential Budget Deficits in Coming Years,Economists Warn
TALLAHASSEE,FL – Sept. 6, 2025 – Florida economists are projecting potential budget shortfalls of $1.5 billion in the 2027-28 fiscal year adn $6.6 billion in 2028-29, despite a currently balanced budget. The projections, released today, stem from increased spending during the COVID-19 pandemic that continues to impact financial forecasts.
The anticipated spending increases are largely driven by rising costs in Medicaid, K-12 education – including school vouchers – and state worker health insurance. Lawmakers have also allocated hundreds of millions of dollars to an emergency response fund for hurricane recovery and other disaster relief.
Combined, these factors are projected to add $6.8 billion to the budget over the next three years, with total new spending needs reaching $20.3 billion.
The outlook follows disagreements earlier this year between House Speaker Daniel Perez, R-Miami, and Senate President Ben Albritton, R-Wauchula, over budget priorities. Perez advocated for more critically important spending cuts and a reduction in the state sales tax, while albritton favored more moderate cuts. Gov. Ron DeSantis prioritized a large property tax cut.
“The House has repeatedly said that state government has a spending problem.The long-range financial outlook reinforces that fact,” Perez said in a released statement. “While we successfully fought to eliminate next year’s shortfall, we are facing a significant deficit in the out-years. The current level of spending is unsustainable and, in a state as prosperous as florida, shoudl be unacceptable.”
The Joint Legislative Budget commission is scheduled to meet Sept. 12 to approve the outlook. The next regular legislative session, where lawmakers will craft and pass a budget, will begin Jan. 13.
