Standoff in Istanbul: Will putin Show?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has publicly accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of avoiding direct negotiations to end the ongoing war in Ukraine. Zelenskyy’s challenge comes ahead of planned talks in Türkiye, where he has committed to attending on Thursday, provided Putin also participates.

Speaking at a press conference in Kyiv, Zelenskyy emphasized the necessity of direct engagement with Putin, stating that a ceasefire and lasting peace hinge on Putin’s direct involvement. He also suggested that the failure of these talks would signal Russia’s unwillingness to pursue diplomatic solutions.

Zelenskyy’s Conditions and Expectations

• Direct talks Only: Zelenskyy has made it clear that he will only engage in face-to-face discussions with Putin himself, dismissing the possibility of meeting with any other Russian representatives.
• Sanctions Threat: The Ukrainian president anticipates strong sanctions from the United States and the European Union if the Istanbul talks do not materialize.
• Ceasefire First: Kyiv insists that any meaningful negotiations must be preceded by a complete ceasefire.

Putin’s Role: The decisive factor

Zelenskyy underscored putin’s central role in any potential resolution, asserting that absolutely everything in Russia depends on him. He believes that only Putin can authorize a ceasefire,paving the way for broader discussions on ending the war.

If he takes the step to say he is ready for a ceasefire then it opens the way to discussing all the elements to end the war.

Zelenskyy also stated:

I’m not even mentioning that he is scared of direct talks with me.

Türkiye as a Potential Meeting Ground

Zelenskyy plans to meet with Turkish President tayyip Erdogan in Ankara before perhaps heading to Istanbul if putin agrees to attend. Türkiye has positioned itself as a key mediator in the conflict, seeking to facilitate dialog between the warring parties.

Trump’s Unexpected Offer and International Involvement

Former U.S. President Donald Trump has also offered to attend the proposed meeting in Istanbul, signaling his continued interest in resolving the conflict. Trump’s involvement adds another layer of complexity to the already delicate diplomatic situation.

While both Russia and Ukraine have publicly expressed interest in pursuing peace, important disagreements remain regarding the path forward. Putin previously proposed direct talks with Ukraine after dismissing a Ukrainian proposal for an unconditional 30-day ceasefire, which Trump then urged Zelenskyy to accept.

Kremlin’s Response and Future Prospects

The Kremlin has not confirmed whether Putin will travel to Türkiye. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that the Russian side continues to prepare for the negotiations and that the declaration of Putin’s participation would be made when the president deems it appropriate. Peskov declined to provide further comments.

Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, emphasized Ukraine’s readiness for talks but reiterated the country’s firm stance that negotiations must follow a ceasefire. Our position is very principled and very strong, yermak told a conference in Copenhagen.

Europe’s Threat of Sanctions

Ukraine and its European allies have warned Russia that it must accept an unconditional 30-day ceasefire or face new sanctions. France indicated that European leaders have requested the European Commission to prepare massive sanctions targeting Russia’s oil and financial sectors if a ceasefire is not agreed upon.

German Foreign minister Johann Wadephul tempered expectations of immediate sanctions, suggesting that the EU is primarily focused on the outcome of the potential meeting in Türkiye. He stated:

Now, it is up to Russia. Russia must not leave the chair empty but must show up to the talks if it is indeed seriously interested in peace.

Historical Context and Potential Outcomes

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which escalated into a full-scale invasion in February 2022, has resulted in significant casualties on both sides. Russia currently controls approximately one-fifth of Ukraine, including Crimea, most of Luhansk, and substantial portions of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions.

Konstantin Kosachev, chairman of the international affairs committee in the upper house of Russia’s parliament, suggested that the upcoming talks could potentially surpass the scope of the 2022 negotiations.

Trump’s Potential Attendance and Diplomatic Efforts

If Zelenskyy and Putin were to meet in Istanbul,it would mark their first face-to-face encounter as December 2019. Trump’s unexpected offer to attend the talks adds a unique dimension to the situation.

I was thinking about actually flying over there. There’s a possibility of it, I guess, if I think things can happen, but we’ve got to get it done, Trump said. Don’t underestimate Thursday in Turkey.

Following Trump’s offer, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio discussed the way forward for a ceasefire in Ukraine with his Ukrainian, British, French, Polish, German, and EU counterparts.

Key Sticking Points and Negotiating Positions

Russia has reportedly indicated that it is open to discussing a ceasefire with Ukraine but will not make any major territorial concessions. Moscow also insists that Kyiv abandon its aspirations to join NATO.

Ukraine, supported by its European allies, maintains that a ceasefire is a prerequisite for any negotiations. Kyiv seeks robust security guarantees as part of any peace agreement and rejects Russian proposals to limit the size of its military. Territorial issues,according to Ukraine,can be addressed onc a ceasefire is in place.

putin has repeatedly referenced a 2022 draft agreement between Russia and Ukraine, which proposed Ukraine’s permanent neutrality in exchange for international security guarantees from several major powers.