Teh Hobbesian Turn: How US Foreign Policy Under Trump Undermines Global Order

Published: 2026/01/09 11:18:52

TEL AVIV – Donald Trump’s presidency, even into his second term, represents a seismic shift in US foreign policy.What initially appeared as “America First” – often interpreted as a retreat from global engagement, particularly appealing to his base – has evolved into something far more assertive and, arguably, destabilizing. It’s a foreign policy increasingly defined by a Hobbesian worldview, where the United States, as the dominant power, feels entitled to extract benefits from nations it perceives as vulnerable. This approach, exemplified by recent actions like the Venezuela operation, carries profound implications for global stability and the international rules-based order.

From isolationism to Assertive Power Politics

The initial rhetoric of “America First” resonated with a segment of the US population weary of prolonged military interventions and the financial burdens of maintaining a global presence.It suggested a focus on domestic concerns and a reluctance to police the world. However, the implementation of this policy has revealed a different reality. Instead of disengagement,the Trump management has pursued a strategy of maximizing US advantage,often at the expense of established alliances and international norms.This isn’t isolationism; it’s a raw exercise of power, reminiscent of the 17th-century political philosopher Thomas Hobbes’s depiction of the state of nature – a “war of all against all” where self-interest reigns supreme.

Hobbes argued that in the absence of a common power, life would be “solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short.” While the international system isn’t quite that anarchic, the Trump administration’s actions suggest a belief that the US can and should operate outside the constraints of international law and institutions when it suits its interests. This is a departure from the post-World War II era, where US leadership was largely predicated on upholding a rules-based order designed to prevent such a scenario.

The Venezuela Operation: A Case Study in Hobbesian Logic

The US intervention in Venezuela, ostensibly aimed at restoring democracy, provides a stark illustration of this Hobbesian approach. While the stated goal was noble, the methods employed – including economic sanctions and support for opposition figures – were widely criticized as interference in another country’s internal affairs. More importantly, the intervention lacked broad international support and was perceived by many as a blatant attempt to control Venezuela’s vast oil reserves. Council on Foreign Relations provides detailed analysis of the US policy towards Venezuela.

This action has had several damaging consequences. First, it has emboldened othre powerful nations to pursue their own interests with similar disregard for international norms. Specifically, it has been interpreted by China as a green light to pursue its claims over Taiwan. If the US can intervene in Venezuela to shape its political landscape, why shouldn’t china do the same in Taiwan, particularly given its long-standing claim of sovereignty?

Second, the Venezuela operation has inadvertently vindicated Russia’s actions in Ukraine. Russia’s annexation of Crimea and support for separatists in eastern ukraine were condemned by the West as violations of international law. however,the US intervention in Venezuela undermines the moral authority of those condemnations,creating a double standard that Russia can exploit. Brookings Institute details the connection between the two crises.

Setting the Stage for Further Unilateral Action

Perhaps the most concerning aspect of this Hobbesian turn is the precedent it sets for future US military and political actions. If the US believes it can act with impunity in Venezuela, it might potentially be tempted to intervene in other countries deemed strategically critically important or possessing valuable resources. This could lead to a more unstable and conflict-prone world, where powerful nations routinely disregard international law and pursue their own narrow interests.

The potential for increased US military interventionism is particularly alarming. The Trump administration has already demonstrated a willingness to use military force, as evidenced by the assassination of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in 2020. the New York Times provides comprehensive coverage of this event. A continued embrace of a Hobbesian worldview could lead to further escalations and conflicts.

The Need for a Multipolar Counterbalance

In the face of this evolving US foreign policy, it is indeed crucial that other major powers work together to reaffirm and enforce international rules of conduct. Germany, India, and Japan – all rising economic and political powers – have a particular obligation to lead this effort. These nations have a vested interest in maintaining a stable and predictable international order, and they possess the economic and diplomatic leverage to counterbalance US assertiveness.

A coordinated approach among these countries could involve strengthening international institutions, promoting multilateral diplomacy, and establishing clear red lines for unacceptable behavior. It could also involve diversifying economic relationships to reduce dependence on the US dollar and challenging US dominance in key sectors.

The Role of International Institutions

strengthening institutions like the United nations, the World Trade Organization, and the International Criminal Court is paramount. These organizations,while imperfect,provide a forum for dialog,dispute resolution,and the enforcement of international law. However, they require the active support and participation of all major powers to be effective.

Promoting Multilateral Diplomacy

Multilateral diplomacy – negotiations involving multiple parties – is essential for addressing complex global challenges. This requires a willingness to compromise and find common ground, even with adversaries. The Trump administration’s skepticism towards multilateralism has undermined this process, making it more challenging to address issues like climate change, nuclear proliferation, and terrorism.

Key Takeaways

• The US, under the Trump administration, is increasingly operating under a Hobbesian worldview, prioritizing its own interests above international norms.
• The Venezuela operation exemplifies this approach and has emboldened other powers, potentially leading to instability.
• A coordinated response from major powers like Germany, India, and Japan is crucial to counterbalance US assertiveness and uphold the international rules-based order.
• Strengthening international institutions and promoting multilateral diplomacy are essential for addressing global challenges.

The shift towards a Hobbesian foreign policy represents a risky departure from decades of US leadership. Unless checked, it risks undermining the international order and ushering in an era of increased conflict and instability.the future of global peace and prosperity depends on the ability of the international community to reaffirm its commitment to cooperation, diplomacy, and the rule of law.