Estonia and Latvia are signaling openness to discussions about a joint European nuclear deterrent, a move prompted by growing anxieties over the future of U.S. Security commitments to the continent. The potential shift comes as former U.S. President Donald Trump continues to cast doubt on NATO’s collective defense principles.
“We are always open to discuss” options for bolstering European security with partners, Estonian Deputy Defense Minister Tuuli Duneton said, while reiterating that the United States remains “committed to providing nuclear deterrence for allied nations.” Latvia’s Prime Minister Evika Siliņa echoed this sentiment, stating, “Nuclear deterrence can supply us new opportunities. Why not?” but cautioned that any such steps must align with “our international commitments.”
The impetus for exploring independent deterrent capabilities stems from Trump’s repeated questioning of NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense clause, his criticism of allied contributions to international security efforts and his past unconventional proposals, such as the suggestion of annexing Greenland, a constituent country of the NATO member Denmark. European officials are increasingly seeking what they describe as an additional “insurance” policy against potential Russian aggression, according to reports.
Currently, France and the United Kingdom are the only European nations possessing nuclear weapons. While, unlike the UK, France operates outside of NATO’s Nuclear Planning Group, the alliance’s forum for discussing nuclear force usage. French presidents have consistently maintained that decisions regarding the use of France’s nuclear arsenal rest solely with Paris, while acknowledging a European dimension to its national interests.
Both German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron raised the topic of a European nuclear deterrent during their respective speeches at the recent Munich Security Conference. Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braže confirmed that “nuclear deterrence is a prominent subject” at this year’s conference, and Belgian Defense Minister Theo Francken participated in a closed-door discussion on the matter.
The discussions are occurring at a sensitive juncture, as European leaders assess the potential implications of a possible return to the White House by Donald Trump. Concerns over the reliability of U.S. Security guarantees are driving a reassessment of European defense strategies and a renewed focus on bolstering independent capabilities.
