Easing Tensions,Lingering Disruptions

Recent moves to reduce customs duties between the United States and China offer a glimmer of hope amid strained relations. However, the initial surge in tariffs has left a lasting impact on global logistics, creating challenges that will take time to resolve.

The core issue lies in the fact that businesses and shipping companies have already adjusted their operations in response to the tariffs. As one report notes, the “original extremely increased duties have disrupted logistics chains and will take a while to return to regular lines. The problem is that companies and boats have already reduced their capacity and business plans.”

Temporary Relief, Ongoing Risks

The temporary nature of the duty reduction, set for 90 days, presents both opportunities and risks. While it benefits air shipments and containers already in transit, it introduces uncertainty for future bookings.

This sentiment is echoed by industry experts, who point out that “the fact that the duty is only temporary, ie 90 days, is good for air shipments and containers that are already in the port. But for other shipments that are still booking, this means again the risk.”

Declining Exports and Port Fees

The impact of the trade tensions is evident in export figures.In April 2025,exports from China to the U.S. experienced a important decline.

Specifically, “in April 2025, export from China to the US dropped by 20 percent compared to January. This is a high number when we imagine the total volume.”

adding to the complexity, new fees are slated to be collected by U.S. ports on ships made in China, starting Oct. 14, 2025.

New Port Fees: Details and Exemptions

The fees for ships owned or operated by Chinese entities will be substantial, beginning at $50 per net registered ton in October 2025. These fees are set to increase annually, reaching $33 per ton or $250 per container by April 2028.

However, certain exemptions apply. These include:

• Ships arriving without cargo
• Smaller vessels,such as container ships up to 4,000 TEU (twenty-Foot Equivalent Unit)
• Ships carrying loose loads up to 55,000 DWT (deadweight Tonnage)
• Ships operating short routes up to 2,000 nautical miles
• Ships built in China but primarily owned by American entities

Redirecting Trade Flows

The current situation has led to a significant decrease in exports to the U.S., causing congestion at Chinese ports to ease.

As an inevitable result, “currently overloaded ports in China are not in danger, as exports to the US have decreased by more than 30 percent and new orders dropped by more than 64 percent.”

Businesses are actively seeking option markets, including the Middle East, Europe, Southeast Asia, and even domestic consumption.

Market Impact and Consumer Costs

The potential for goods shortages in the market hinges on supply and demand dynamics. Consumers may bear the brunt of increased costs, particularly for inexpensive goods sold on Delivered Duty Paid (DDP) terms.

According to analysts, “if something on the market is in demand, the consumer will be willing to pay for the goods, including the increased duty.Though, we can expect a problem in the US for very cheap goods that have been sold on DDP parity – that is when the sender pays both the import customs in the US, duty and VAT.”

The increased costs of air transport may further exacerbate shortages, at least in the short term.

Overall Assessment

The recent US-China agreement to reduce tariffs is viewed as an imperfect solution due to its lack of long-term clarity and guarantees. While it may facilitate trade in strategic raw materials and high-value products,it is likely to increase the cost of cheap consumer goods.

“the new US-Chinese Agreement to reduce cells is not an ideal solution because it does not provide a clear plan or guarantee.Even at 30 percent, some goods will be considerably more expensive. I assume that this will mainly allow trade in strategic raw materials and products with higher added value. Cheap consumer goods are certainly reduced and more expensive.”