summary of the Article: Russia‘s War in Ukraine & its Implications for Europe
This article argues that Russia’s strategy in Europe has shifted from persuasion to intimidation, revealing a fundamental miscalculation regarding Ukraine and its relationship with the West. Here’s a breakdown of the key points:
1. Shift in Russian Strategy:
* Ukraine: Russia has abandoned attempts to win over the Ukrainian population and now relies on brute force, demonstrating the failure of its initial political arguments (illegitimacy of the government, pro-Russian sentiment).
* Europe: Russia has moved away from persuasion and towards intimidation tactics, likely in response to increased European military spending (specifically Germany’s commitment of €500 billion).
2. Russia’s Limitations:
* Military Power: Russia lacks the military strength to conquer unoccupied Ukraine (80% of the country).
* Political Influence: Russia has lost much of its political influence in Europe. Figures like Gerhard Schröder, who previously acted as a Russian lobbyist, are now ostracized. Even traditionally pro-Russian governments (Hungary, Slovakia, Italy) are unable to effectively oppose European support for Ukraine.
* Economic Disparity: The vast economic difference between the EU (20 trillion USD GDP) and Russia (2 trillion USD GDP) makes a European defeat highly improbable.
3.Europe’s Advantages & Challenges:
* Asymmetric Advantages: Europe possesses significant economic and logistical advantages that Russia cannot overcome through irregular warfare.
* Slow Mobilization: Europe struggles with quickly mobilizing military resources, particularly regarding air defenses for ukraine. Russia’s drone production is a growing concern.
* Need for Clear Recognition: The author argues that Europeans need to acknowledge that Ukraine’s war is Europe’s war – a conflict over Ukraine’s future as part of Europe. Accepting this reality will allow for better resource allocation and a more unified response.
4.Dealing with Russian Tactics:
* Intelligence & Counter-Sabotage: european intelligence services need to focus on detecting Russian saboteurs and developing quiet retaliatory measures.
* Realistic Assessment: Failures in dealing with irregular warfare are inevitable, but should be met with calm reassessment, not panic or overestimation of Russian power.
In essence, the article paints a picture of a Russia increasingly isolated and resorting to desperate measures, facing a Europe that, despite its challenges, is fundamentally stronger and better positioned for a long-term struggle.
