Geneva – Peace talks mediated by the United States commenced in Geneva today, raising the possibility of a direct meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin, with former U.S. President Donald Trump also expected to participate. The negotiations come as the conflict enters its fifth year, marked by a grinding war of attrition and escalating casualties.
Recent Russian advances have been incremental, with the capture of Pokrovsk, a key logistical hub, achieved only after a two-year campaign. According to assessments, combined military losses for both sides are approaching two million casualties, mirroring the scale of devastation seen during the Thirty Years’ War, albeit with modern weaponry. Despite these gains, Russia continues to launch large-scale missile and drone attacks, recently targeting Kharkiv, Zaporizhia, and Kyiv with 39 rockets and 420 drones in a single night, resulting in 25 reported injuries.
Ukrainian forces are mounting counteroffensives, reclaiming territory near Kupyansk – 183 square kilometers – and making further gains in Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipole, totaling an additional 165 square kilometers. These counterattacks indicate a continuing escalation of the conflict, rather than a stalemate.
The situation echoes historical power dynamics, according to observations reminiscent of 17th-century French Cardinal Richelieu. Richelieu, a key figure in French history known for his pragmatic approach to statecraft, noted the parallels between Putin’s actions and his own pursuit of a balance of power, specifically preventing the dominance of a rival power – in Richelieu’s case, the Habsburgs.
“Putin is playing my game: balance of power,” a commentary attributed to Richelieu observed. “He does not want NATO at his border, just as I did not want Habsburg hegemony. I supported Sweden and Protestants against Catholics – out of *raison d’état*.”
Russia’s military gains are described as slow, averaging between 15 and 70 meters of territory gained per day. The conflict is characterized as a war of attrition, with Russia relying on a larger manpower pool to sustain its offensive. Although, concerns are raised about the sustainability of Russia’s efforts, given its economic challenges – with growth at only 0.6 percent in 2025 – and dependence on China for crucial supplies, such as drones.
The role of the United States, now under the leadership of Donald Trump, is also being viewed through a similar lens of pragmatic self-interest. Trump’s stated “America First” policy and his desire to finish the war, due to a perceived lack of strategic interests, are seen as aligning with Richelieu’s own focus on strengthening France by breaking existing alliances.
“Finally, a president with my pragmatism!” the attributed commentary states. “Trump is mediating, wants to end the war because he sees no strategic interests. Correctly, the U.S. Made the mistake of expanding NATO, provoking Russia. Now they are withdrawing, leaving Europe to fend for itself.”
The potential for a shift in U.S. Policy raises the possibility of a realignment of global power dynamics, with some analysts suggesting that the U.S. Might counterbalance a strengthening Russia by aligning with China.
As of today, the outcome of the Geneva talks remains uncertain. President Zelenskyy has characterized the negotiations as representing the “beginning of the end,” while Trump has expressed a desire to “stop the killing.” No official statements have been released regarding the specifics of the proposed meeting between Zelenskyy, Putin, and Trump.
