Lagging Air Defenses Raise concerns as Drone Warfare Escalates
BRUSSELS – Western air defense systems are struggling to keep pace with the rapidly evolving threat of drone warfare, as demonstrated by starkly contrasting success rates in Ukraine and recent NATO exercises. While Ukraine intercepts approximately 700 out of 800 drones launched nightly by Russia, a recent NATO training exercise yielded a mere four drone takedowns out of nineteen attempted attacks, raising questions about Europe’s preparedness for potential aerial incursions.
the disparity highlights a critical vulnerability stemming from decades of underinvestment and a shift in military priorities following the cold War. Historically focused on conventional warfare, European defense industries scaled back production of air defense systems, anticipating no need for robust capabilities against asymmetric threats like swarms of low-flying drones. This leaves nations now scrambling to rebuild capacity while facing a resurgent geopolitical landscape and the immediate reality of drone warfare in Eastern Europe. the situation impacts not only military security but also critical infrastructure and civilian populations perhaps vulnerable to drone attacks. Addressing this shortfall requires substantial investment, industrial revitalization, and a renewed focus on countering this evolving threat.
Following the end of the Cold War, the Netherlands, like many European nations, substantially downsized it’s military and reoriented its focus. “We had a military geared towards missions in places like Afghanistan, where the taliban didn’t possess an air force, so there was no requirement for air defense,” explains security analyst Dick Bolder. This strategic shift led to a decline in European defense industrial capacity, a problem now hindering efforts to rapidly bolster air defense capabilities.
Rebuilding these industries and acquiring necessary systems will take years, Bolder emphasizes. “European defense industries have become very small. That needs to be rebuilt,and it requires investment.” While progress is being made, with European defense industries showing renewed momentum, a swift solution remains distant.”It’s not going to be solved today or tomorrow,” he stated.
The urgency of the situation is underscored by Russia’s ongoing use of drones in Ukraine, launching nightly attacks involving hundreds of aerial vehicles. The low NATO success rate in intercepting drones during recent exercises raises concerns about the alliance’s ability to defend against similar attacks.
However, Bolder suggests a key deterrent lies in demonstrating resolve to Russian President Vladimir Putin. “It’s vital that we, as NATO and European countries, show that we are determined and will not tolerate interference in our security. That could deter Putin,” he said. He also notes that as long as Russia remains focused on the war in Ukraine, it is less likely to initiate large-scale attacks against NATO members.
