Berlin – Germany is preparing for a fundamental shift in foreign and security policy, acknowledging that the post-Cold War era of relative peace and stability is over. Driven by Russia’s war in Ukraine and the rise of China, Berlin is embarking on a path to bolster its military capabilities, strengthen European sovereignty, and recalibrate its relationship with the United States, according to a detailed assessment of the new geopolitical landscape.
The shift, outlined in a series of policy adjustments and statements from German officials, reflects a growing recognition that “Europe has ended a long ‘vacation from history,’” as articulated in recent analyses of the evolving international order. Germany’s approach centers on bolstering its own strength – militarily, economically, and technologically – while simultaneously working to forge a more unified and assertive Europe.
A key element of this strategy is a significant increase in defense spending. Following a constitutional amendment, Germany is now committed to investing five percent of its GDP in security, a move that will result in “hundreds of billions of euros” being allocated to defense in the coming years. This investment is aimed at transforming the Bundeswehr into “the strongest conventional army in Europe,” capable of deterring aggression and defending its interests. Germany is also strengthening NATO’s eastern flank, maintaining a forward-deployed brigade in Lithuania.
Beyond military spending, Germany is focused on reducing its economic dependencies and strengthening its critical infrastructure against hybrid attacks. Efforts are underway to diversify supply chains for raw materials, key products, and technologies, and to accelerate progress in future technologies, including artificial intelligence. The Federal Intelligence Service is also being strengthened to counter internal and external threats to Germany’s democratic order.
Central to Germany’s vision is a stronger, more sovereign Europe. Berlin is advocating for a streamlining of European bureaucracy and a focus on fostering innovation and competitiveness. Crucially, Germany is pushing for Europe to develop its own security policy, independent of, but complementary to, NATO. Confidential talks with France are underway regarding European nuclear deterrence, with the understanding that any such arrangement will remain within the framework of NATO nuclear sharing and international law.
Germany is also actively working to expand Europe’s network of strategic partnerships, signing trade agreements with Mercosur and India, and pursuing further agreements with other nations. This outreach is intended to reduce dependencies and create new opportunities for both Europe and its partners.
The relationship with the United States remains a priority, but Germany acknowledges a growing rift. While recognizing the importance of NATO, Berlin believes a new transatlantic partnership is needed, one based on mutual respect and a recognition of diverging interests. “The culture war waged by the MAGA movement is not ours,” a German official stated, highlighting the differing values and priorities between Europe and certain factions within the U.S. Political landscape. Germany aims to rebuild trust with the U.S., emphasizing the benefits of a strong alliance for both sides.
Germany is also recalibrating its relationship with China, rejecting the idea of complete decoupling but advocating for a more mature approach focused on “de-risking” and reducing dependencies. Berlin intends to engage with Beijing with “principled realism,” acknowledging China’s growing influence while safeguarding its own interests and values.
This shift in German foreign policy is not without its challenges. As Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski observed 15 years ago, “I fear German power less than German inaction.” Germany recognizes the need to overcome its historical reluctance to exercise power and to embrace a more assertive role on the world stage.
The path forward, according to German policymakers, requires a “system update” – a fundamental shift in mindset that recognizes that freedom is not a given and must be actively defended. Germany’s commitment to this new course is underscored by its increased investment in defense, its efforts to strengthen European sovereignty, and its willingness to forge new partnerships around the globe. The outcome of these efforts, and the future of the international order, remains uncertain, but Germany is determined to play a leading role in shaping the new era.
