Blue Origin’s New Glenn: A Potential Challenge to SpaceX‘s Dominance?
The recent successful, though not flawless, inaugural flight of Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket on January 16th has sparked discussion about whether jeff Bezos’ company could become a notable competitor to Elon Musk’s SpaceX in the space launch market. While SpaceX currently holds an “ultra-dominant position,” according to researcher Paul Wohrer of the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri), the situation could evolve.
Wohrer notes that SpaceX “does not necessarily have anything to worry about today,” given its ambitious projects. Though, he cautions that this could be “the start of a competition which will tend, if history is a reliable indicator, to become more pronounced in the future.”
A key uncertainty lies in the cost comparison between Blue Origin’s New Glenn and SpaceX’s Falcon and Starship rockets. “It is entirely possible that the costs of one and the othre are very different,” Wohrer explains, as reliable pricing data remains unavailable.
The demand for heavy launchers like the 98-meter-tall New Glenn is also a question mark.Launches of SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy have been infrequent, with the most recent occurring on October 14, 2024, suggesting a limited market. Though, the need for heavy launchers could increase with the expansion of satellite constellations, particularly SpaceX’s Starlink system. Elon Musk himself has stated SpaceX will require a very heavy launcher to support the long-term viability of Starlink, highlighting the potential role of Starship or, perhaps, new Glenn.
Currently, Blue Origin lags behind SpaceX in experience. The new Glenn’s first orbital flight saw a failed recovery of the first stage – a crucial element for reusable rockets. SpaceX, in contrast, has demonstrated greater reliability with its Falcon 9, which completed 132 flights in 2024.
Blue Origin, founded in 2000 – two years before SpaceX – “has for a long time been very very very late,” Wohrer states. The company must “still prove itself in the field.” Despite this, Blue Origin is a significant player in space tourism with its New Shepard rocket, develops engines for other launchers, and is building a lunar lander for NASA’s Artemis program, aiming to return humans to the Moon.
The second flight of the New Glenn, taking place this Thursday evening, is critical. Wohrer emphasizes the need to “prove reliability for conducting missions in orbit and demonstrate Blue Origin’s ability to recover the first stage of the launcher.” The success of this mission could significantly shape the future of the company and its potential to challenge SpaceX’s dominance.
