The global business travel sector is experiencing a notable downturn in optimism,according to a recent report by the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA). Positive sentiment has more than halved, dropping from 67% in November 2024 to a concerning 31% in April 2025.

This dramatic shift is attributed to the perceived impact of tariffs,tightened border policies,and other U.S. government policies implemented this year. The survey, which polled over 900 business travel professionals, reveals a growing unease about the future of the industry.

Rising Pessimism Across Key Regions

• More than one in four respondents in Canada, the United States, and Europe expressed feelings of “pessimism” or “very pessimistic” regarding the industry outlook for the year.
• A substantial 40% of those surveyed indicated a neutral stance, feeling neither positive nor negative about the current situation.

Suzanne Neufang,the CEO of the GBTA,emphasized the unprecedented level of uncertainty currently gripping the sector. As I have been in my role for four years, I haven’t seen this high of a level of uncertainty, she stated.

Anticipated Reductions in Business Travel

The survey data indicates a potential contraction in business travel activity:

• Nearly 30% of business travel buyers anticipate their companies will reduce employee trips this year.
• Approximately 20% of respondents expressed uncertainty, unable to confidently predict whether conditions will improve or worsen. They’re not even confident enough to be able to say things will be fine or things won’t be fine, Neufang explained.
• An additional 27% of respondents foresee a decrease in business travel spending.

Long-Term Policy Concerns

A significant portion of business travel buyers are reevaluating their travel policies in response to the current climate.

• one-third of business travel buyers reported that their companies have either changed or are considering changing policies regarding travel to or from the United States.
• Notably, 6% of companies have already relocated events from the U.S. to other countries.

Neufang highlighted the potential for other regions to capitalize on the shift. From an APAC outlook, and certainly from a European perspective, maybe even LATAM, there’s the possibility to be the source of where these meetings take place. There are many other opportunities to be a winner in this trade game.

Concerns among business travel professionals center on the long-term implications of recent policy decisions, particularly regarding:

• Business travel costs (54%)
• Problems processing visas (46%)

despite these concerns, global airfares have experienced a slight decrease, down approximately $17, or 2.2% year-to-date, according to FCM Consulting, a division of FCM Travel.

Not All ‘Doom and Gloom’

Despite the prevailing uncertainty, the global business travel market is still projected to reach $1.6 trillion by the end of 2025. However, Neufang cautioned that this projection is contingent on the absence of further negative impacts from recent policy changes. If the last 100 days don’t impact negatively everywhere, she noted.

The GBTA anticipates that the market will surpass the $2 trillion mark by 2028. While business travel volumes have not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels, spending fully recovered in 2024, driven in part by inflation.

Interestingly, Neufang suggested that trade tensions could paradoxically stimulate business travel in the short term. During times of trade wars, business travel may actually increase for at least a period of time – for new partners to be found [and] new markets to be built.You lose a customer, you need to find another one. So I think that perspective doesn’t mean all doom and gloom for us.

However, she warned that sustained tariffs could negatively impact U.S. travel. There will definitely be an impact to U.S. travel … but I think Europe, Asia, Europe to Asia, Asia to Europe. I think anywhere to Africa, all of those are probably fine.

Leisure travel to the United States has already experienced a decline in 2025.International visitor spending is projected to decrease by 4.7% from 2024, representing an $8.5 billion loss for the U.S.travel industry, reversing earlier expectations of growth.