The Global Scramble for Trade agreements

The international community is closely watching the unfolding trade landscape as reciprocal tariff measures enacted by the U.S. take hold. With the measures officially in effect since noon today, nations worldwide are eager to engage in negotiations with the U.S. to mitigate potential economic fallout.

The White House reports notable interest, stating that 70 countries have all their intentions to discuss trade agreements. This widespread interest underscores the broad impact of the U.S. policy shift.

Jefferies’ Prediction: Five Nations to Watch

Aniket Shah, head of sustainable and change strategy at investment bank Jefferies, offers insights into which countries are most likely to secure agreements with the U.S.in the near future. Shah predicts that in the next few days, the united States will reach an agreement with some trading partners. he identifies five nations as particularly promising candidates:

• United Kingdom
• Japan
• Vietnam
• India
• Cambodia

Notably,Taiwan is not among the countries Shah believes are likely to reach an agreement soon.

Pre-Tariff Diplomacy: A Flurry of Meetings and Calls

Prior to the implementation of the reciprocal tariff measures, a flurry of diplomatic activity took place. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with President Trump at the White House. additionally, japanese Prime Minister Shiro Ishiba and South Korean Acting President Han Yusoo engaged in telephone conversations with the U.S. president.

President Trump acknowledged the call with South Korea, stating he had a great call with South Korea.

Stocks to Watch: Supply Chains and Tariff Negotiations

According to Baron’s Weekly, Shah has also identified potential stocks worth monitoring in the five countries he highlighted. His analysis considers factors such as supply chain dynamics and customer location.

Key considerations include:

• Corporate Supply Chains: Companies with extensive international supply chains stand to benefit from multi-party tariff negotiations.
• Clothing Brands: Brands like Nike, VF, and Tapestry could see direct benefits if Vietnam and Cambodia avoid high tariffs.
• Boeing: With production and sales bases in the UK, India, and Japan, Boeing is considerably invested in these markets. 6% of it’s revenue comes from the UK, and 4.3% from Japan.
• First Solar: This solar company has 30% of its production capacity in vietnam and India.

Othre Companies Potentially Impacted

Shah also notes the potential impact on medical device manufacturers Cooper and Waters, both of which have ties to the UK. Cooper has a distribution center in Japan, while approximately 8% of Waters’ revenue comes from India.

Other companies with significant revenue reliance on the aforementioned countries include:

• ON Semiconductor (semiconductor supplier)
• Alcon (pharmaceutical factory)
• Carnival
• Callaway

These companies are also likely to experience impacts from the evolving trade landscape.

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