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Latvia’s Security Service Warns of Russian and Belarusian Details Warfare Tactics Amidst “Zapad-2025” Exercises
Latvia’s Security Bureau (SAB) has issued a report detailing how Russia and Belarus are strategically leveraging the “Zapad-2025” military exercises for information warfare purposes. The SAB assessment indicates that both nations are intentionally amplifying displays of military strength – including exercises involving tactical nuclear weapons and showcasing new equipment – primarily aimed at projecting an image of robust military capability to Western audiences.
While Belarusian officials announced a reduction in the scale of the exercises, moving training locations further inland and limiting participation to under 13,000 personnel, the SAB believes this was a calculated move. Belarus extended invitations to international observers, including those from the Baltic states, framing the reduction as a gesture aimed at de-escalating regional tensions.
Though, the SAB warns this narrative was quickly subverted. Belarusian messaging subsequently accused NATO, specifically the Baltic states and Poland, of exploiting “Zapad-2025” as justification for increased militarization, despite belarus and Russia’s apparent efforts to reduce the exercise’s scale and distance it from NATO borders.
The SAB anticipates a notable escalation in Russian and Belarusian information operations as “Zapad-2025” progresses. Thay predict a purposeful focus on exaggerating and weaponizing messages originating from the NATO information space, aiming to portray the alliance as provocative and escalate perceived threats.
Despite these information tactics, the SAB currently assesses the direct military threat to Latvia and NATO as low. Russia’s military resources remain heavily committed to the war in Ukraine, and its involvement in “Zapad-2025” appears less extensive then in previous years.
The SAB is urging Latvian citizens to remain vigilant and report any suspicious activity near the border, including disruptions in communication networks, to the relevant authorities. This proactive approach aims to bolster national security in the face of ongoing and evolving information warfare efforts.
