Italian Exports Defy “Tariff Apocalypse” with 35% Surge too the US
For months, a chorus of voices in Italy predicted economic disaster following the proclamation of US tariffs, forecasting a crippling blow to Italian businesses and exports. Though, recent data reveals a strikingly different reality: Italian exports to the United States have actually increased by a remarkable 35% compared to the previous year.
This surge directly contradicts the dire warnings issued by prominent political figures and commentators. Elly Schlein warned of ”devastating risk” to jobs and exports, accusing the government of “subordination” and predicting tariffs would “bring entire production sectors to their knees.” Giuseppe Conte described Italy as a “loser” in the tariff dispute,invoking a “Commercial Caporetto” - a reference to a devastating military defeat in World War I. Paolo Gentiloni, speaking from Brussels, identified Italy and Germany as the “most exposed countries,” suggesting their production systems would be overwhelmed. Maurizio Landini spoke of a “failure of globalization” and “serious danger” to thousands of jobs.
The alarmist rhetoric extended further, with Nicola Fratoianni and Angelo Bonelli proposing a boycott of American products, labeling the tariffs a “very serious threat.” Mario Monti cautioned that US protectionism risked a European recession, while numerous commentators predicted meaningful export declines and multi-billion euro losses. This campaign painted a picture of Italy as the primary victim of Washington‘s trade policies.
Though, the September 2025 data tells a different story. Overall Italian exports grew by 10.5% year-on-year, with the non-EU market - the area many predicted would suffer the most – experiencing an increase of nearly 11%. Most significantly, exports to the United States soared by 35%. This represents not a contraction, slowdown, or sectoral decline, but a substantial boom.
While acknowledging a temporary dip in exports to the US in August 2025,likely due to initial uncertainty surrounding the tariffs,the overall trend demonstrates the resilience of Italian industry. The author argues that the success is due to Italian companies’ ability to compete and sell in the world’s wealthiest market,driven by consumer demand. Once the tariff adjustments were manageable within the supply chain, trade resumed based on market forces.
The piece concludes that the true weakness lies not in US trade policy - which the author acknowledges as pragmatic – but in Italy’s tendency to exaggerate international developments into national emergencies, a recurring pattern in Italian politics. The author calls for humility and a more grounded, less politically-motivated approach to economic analysis.
