Strait of Hormuz Closure: How a 95% Drop in Traffic Disrupts Global Shipping
Six months into the United States-Israel war on Iran, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has reduced daily vessel traffic through the 33km passage from more than 100 ships to just five, triggering one of the worst maritime shipping disruptions in decades according to Al Jazeera. The chokepoint carries about one-third of global seaborne crude oil and nearly one-third of liquefied petroleum gas flows, alongside liquefied natural gas and refined petroleum products, according to UNCTAD data cited by Al Jazeera.
Global shipping disruptions and cargo volume declines
Maritime shipping moves about 80 percent of world trade by volume, making the passage essential to the global economy according to UNCTAD. Before the conflict, Lloyd’s List estimated that dry bulk carriers made roughly 7,000 Hormuz transits a year, or about 20 a day. Richard Matthews, director of consultancy and research at London-based shipbroking and maritime advisory service Gibson Shipbrokers, told Al Jazeera that the crisis marks a major constriction of a key maritime gateway. Matthews noted that unlike other global passages, the Strait of Hormuz has no alternative maritime route, though pipelines exist, which explains the severe impact on cargo volumes.
Crude oil and energy export reductions
Crude oil exports from the Gulf region dropped by nearly half, falling from approximately 17 million barrels per day in 2025 to roughly nine million barrels per day as of August 2026. Reuters analysts estimated that five to seven million barrels of Gulf oil per day face ongoing disruption. Furthermore, direct crude oil exports moving directly through the strait averaged just 2.2 million barrels per day, according to data from commodity market tracker Kpler. Combined crude shipments from major Gulf oil producers—including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, and Kuwait—declined sharply from roughly 400 million barrels in February to about 200 million barrels in July.
Market projections and future normalization outlook
Traders on the Kalshi prediction market have delayed expectations for the normalization of shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz out to 2027, according to data cited by dars.gov.et. Meanwhile, operators across the region continue to rely on ship-to-ship oil transfers in the Sea of Oman, where IranWire reports that roughly 25 million barrels have been moved amid the ongoing naval blockade and restricted strait access.
