Growing Ties Between India, Russia, and China Amidst US Trade Concerns
Recent diplomatic activity and economic trends suggest a strengthening alignment between India, Russia, and China, spurred in part by trade tensions with the United States. A bilateral meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday gained meaning following the imposition of additional 25% tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump on Indian imports, bringing the total duties to 50%, in response to India’s continued purchases of discounted Russian oil.
The U.S. has consistently cautioned New Delhi against sourcing Russian crude, arguing it sustains Moscow’s revenue stream used to fund the war in Ukraine. India has justified these imports as crucial for meeting the energy demands of its 1.4 billion citizens.
Analysts suggest Trump’s tariffs and the associated rhetoric from the White House are accelerating a trend of closer cooperation between India, China, and Russia, notably in resisting perceived economic unilateralism from the U.S. Harsh Pant, vice president of foreign policy at the Observer Research foundation in New Delhi, stated that these policies are pushing India to work more closely with China and Russia.
Modi visited Russia twice in 2023. The first trip, in July, marked his first visit to Moscow since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.He later attended the BRICS summit in Kazan in October.
Following the recent summit demonstrating unity between Xi, Putin, and Modi, Trump continued to criticize India’s trade practices and oil purchases via social media, characterizing the U.S.-India trade relationship as “a totally one sided disaster!” and indicating no immediate prospects for a trade deal. He also noted India’s offer to reduce tariffs, suggesting it was made too late.
The relationship between Russia and india dates back to the Cold War, with New Delhi remaining a key trading partner for Moscow, particularly as the onset of the conflict in Ukraine. Both China and India have considerably increased their purchases of Russian oil following Western sanctions.
India, traditionally reliant on Middle Eastern oil suppliers, now sources approximately 37% of its crude oil from Russia, becoming the world’s third-largest crude importer after China and the U.S. Bilateral trade between India and Russia has risen sharply, reaching a record $68.7 billion in the 2024-25 financial year, with imports from Russia totaling around $64 billion and exports from India reaching approximately $5 billion. Both nations aim to increase trade to $100 billion by 2030.
Sreeram Sundar Chaulia, an international affairs expert at Jindal School of International Affairs in New delhi, emphasized that Modi’s meeting with Putin highlighted India’s commitment to its long-standing strategic partnerships and its foreign policy autonomy. He also noted the Indian government’s hope that the current strain in U.S.-India relations is temporary, allowing India to maintain a “multi-alignment strategy” encompassing both Russian and American partnerships.
