Adapting Linkage: A Trilateral Approach to Indo-Pacific Stability
The evolving geopolitical landscape of the Indo-Pacific, marked by overlapping crises in Ukraine, the Taiwan Strait, and the Korean Peninsula, demands a re-evaluation of established strategies for maintaining peace and stability. A key concept from the Cold War – “linkage,” the idea that regional actions have global repercussions – offers a potential framework for addressing these interconnected challenges. While not without past limitations, adapting linkage through strengthened trilateral cooperation between the United States, Japan, and South Korea could prove crucial in deterring aggression and fostering a more stable regional order.
historically, linkage policy operated on the principle that Soviet regional interventions could not be isolated from broader efforts towards global détente. Today, similar dynamics are at play. Russia’s increasing reliance on military hardware from North Korea, for example, presents a clear prospect to re-establish this principle. Should this procurement continue,a coordinated response from NATO in Europe,including reinforced sanctions,alongside expanded maritime inspections of North Korean vessels and stricter sanctions enforcement by the US,Japan,and South Korea,could demonstrate the interconnectedness of regional actions and international consequences.
Beyond responding to existing challenges, proactive measures can further solidify this linkage approach. one such measure is the institutionalization of a Semiconductor Contingency Protocol. This protocol would automatically suspend exports of advanced chips to Chinese firms in the event of increased coercion by Beijing in the Taiwan Strait or East China Sea.Building on Japan’s 2023 restrictions on chipmaking equipment exports and South Korea’s participation in the US-led Chip 4 Alliance, this protocol would tie technological access to maritime security, preventing Beijing from compartmentalizing its economic interests from aggressive actions.
Strengthening energy security through a formalized Energy Security Linkage Mechanism also presents a valuable opportunity. japan’s 2022 decision to redirect LNG supplies to Europe following its alignment with sanctions against Russia demonstrates a willingness to support allies in times of crisis. Institutionalizing a Japan-ROK LNG swap, guaranteeing reciprocal support in similar scenarios, would solidify this cooperation. In return, south Korea could pledge full observance of sanctions against Moscow and commitment to the G7 oil price cap, transforming ad hoc responses into binding commitments.
the burgeoning partnership between Russia and North Korea provides a critical test case for the request of linkage. Future humanitarian aid to Pyongyang should be explicitly conditioned on verifiable cessation of arms transfers to Moscow, alongside demonstrable progress towards nuclear restraint. This verification could be achieved through the UN expert panel and coordinated maritime patrols in the Yellow Sea conducted by the US, Japan, and South Korea. This approach would underscore that North Korea’s access to essential resources is contingent upon its commitment to regional stability.
The historical application of linkage during the Cold War was not without flaws. Soviet interventions in Angola and Afghanistan proved unavoidable, and adversaries actively sought to exploit the inherent vulnerabilities of the approach. However, the underlying principles remain relevant. In an era of systemic rivalry, comprehensive bargaining and cross-domain repercussions are essential for maintaining peace. By adapting linkage to the 21st-century context through a sanctions compact, a semiconductor protocol, an LNG swap, and robust trilateral cooperation, the US, Japan, and South Korea can deter adversaries, close strategic gaps, and build a more resilient Indo-Pacific framework. As crises in Ukraine, Taiwan, and the Korean Peninsula continue to intersect, a revitalized linkage policy offers a promising path towards preserving peace in East Asia.
