Denmark Election: Exit Polls Show Tight Race, Greenland Issue Looms

COPENHAGEN, Denmark (AP) — Denmark’s parliamentary election on Tuesday resulted in a closely contested outcome, with neither left-leaning nor right-leaning blocs securing a clear majority, according to exit polls. The vote followed a period of political tension sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump’s repeated expressions of interest in acquiring Greenland, an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark.

Initial projections from the Megafon research institute, commissioned by broadcaster TV 2, indicated that Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen’s center-left Social Democrats are poised to remain the largest single party, though with a reduced share of the vote compared to the 2022 election. The centrist Moderate party, led by Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, is expected to play a pivotal role in forming the next government, potentially acting as a kingmaker once again.

Frederiksen’s decision to call the election in February was widely interpreted as an attempt to capitalize on her firm stance against Trump’s overtures regarding Greenland. She publicly stated her hope that a strong showing would reinforce Denmark’s position within the European Union and NATO. “Some people are talking about a Greenlandic moment this year when Europe stood up, stood together, and hopefully I can be a part of that after this election as well,” Frederiksen said while campaigning on Tuesday.

The crisis surrounding Greenland escalated in late 2025 and early 2026, when Trump refused to definitively rule out the use of military force to secure the territory, and threatened a 25% import tax on European Union goods if Denmark did not cede control of Greenland, according to reports. These actions prompted a strong rebuke from Denmark and the EU, raising concerns about a potential trade war and reigniting anxieties about the reliability of the U.S. Commitment to its allies.

However, at the 2026 Davos conference, Trump reversed course, pledging not to employ force or tariffs in pursuit of annexing Greenland. Following this shift, the U.S., Denmark, and Greenland initiated technical discussions regarding an Arctic security agreement. Despite this apparent de-escalation, the issue of Greenland’s status remains a sensitive one, with Frederiksen warning in January that a U.S. Takeover would represent “the end of NATO.”

Beyond the Greenland issue, the election campaign focused heavily on domestic concerns, including the rising cost of living, pension reforms, and the potential implementation of a wealth tax. Frederiksen’s government, an unusual coalition spanning the traditional left-right divide, faced challenges as public support waned amid economic pressures.

Several parties vied to replace Frederiksen as prime minister. Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen of the Liberal party, and Alex Vanopslagh, leader of the opposition Liberal Alliance, both presented themselves as viable alternatives. Vanopslagh’s party advocates for lower taxes, reduced bureaucracy, and a reevaluation of Denmark’s long-standing refusal to embrace nuclear power.

The anti-immigration Danish People’s Party also appeared poised to gain ground, signaling a potential shift in the political landscape. While Greenland was not a central campaign issue due to broad consensus on its place within the kingdom, the crisis served as a backdrop to the election, highlighting Denmark’s commitment to its autonomy and its alliances within the EU and NATO.

Denmark’s 179-seat parliament, the Folketing, allocates 175 seats to representatives from Denmark itself, with the remaining two seats each reserved for representatives from Greenland and the Faroe Islands, another autonomous territory within the Kingdom. Approximately 4.3 million of Denmark’s 6 million residents were eligible to vote in Tuesday’s election.