Influenza deaths in Australia surpassed those from COVID-19 for the first time since the pandemic’s peak, with 1,701 influenza-related fatalities recorded in 2025, according to data released Tuesday by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
The figures represent the highest number of influenza deaths recorded in Australia this century, exceeding the 2,161 deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the same period. While COVID-19 remained a significant cause of respiratory-related mortality, the number of deaths fell by more than half compared to the 5,108 recorded in 2024.
The shift in dominance comes as Australia experienced a record-breaking flu season, driven by the emergence of a new influenza variant, H3N2 Subclade K. Epidemiologist Catherine Bennett of Deakin University explained that the new variant’s mutations meant existing vaccines and prior immunity were less effective. “The H factor, the Hemagglutinin protein, had a number of different mutations in it that we hadn’t seen before,” she said. “That meant the vaccine, or prior immunity, wasn’t as well targeted to this new virus.”
The ABS data reveals a distinct pattern in respiratory disease mortality. Between August and December 2025, influenza deaths (741) outnumbered COVID-19 deaths (428). This marked a reversal of the trend observed earlier in the year, when COVID-19 deaths (1,279) exceeded influenza deaths (682) between January and July.
Professor Bennett noted that the Subclade K variant extended the flu season well into the summer months, an unusual occurrence. “We saw almost a summer wave of influenza that we don’t usually see,” she said. The ABS has observed a pattern of two peaks in COVID-19 mortality since the end of 2021, occurring between November and January, and again between May and August. Yet, preliminary data suggests no similar summer peak for COVID-19 in 2025-2026.
While COVID-19 continues to pose a significant risk, particularly during winter months, Professor Bennett indicated This proves evolving into a more seasonal virus. “So winter, and if you look at the deaths it’s still a very significant virus, it’s still responsible for more deaths through the winter than influenza,” she said. “But COVID for the first time really had much less impact over the summer in terms of deaths.”
The majority of deaths related to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza occurred in individuals over the age of 70, a demographic with comparatively low influenza vaccination rates. Approximately 60 percent of Australians aged 65 and over received a flu vaccine, leaving a substantial portion of the vulnerable population unprotected. Professor Bennett emphasized the importance of increased vaccination efforts, stating that vaccines can reduce the severity of illness and the risk of death, even if they do not prevent infection entirely.
The ABS will continue to monitor mortality data as more death registrations are received, with a particular focus on whether the shift towards influenza dominance persists in future reporting periods.
