Costa Rica’s presidential election, concluded with a first-round victory for conservative candidate Laura Fernández, 39, has opened the 2026 electoral cycle in Latin America, bolstering a regional trend toward right-leaning governments. The result follows the election of José Antonio Kast in Chile and the success of Javier Milei in Argentina’s legislative elections, as well as the narrow victory of Nasry “Tito” Asfura in Honduras, backed by former U.S. President Donald Trump.
Fernández’s win signals a continuation of the policies of current President Rodrigo Chaves, whom she has been appointed to serve as minister of the presidency, according to reports. She has pledged to address crime through the construction of a large, militarized prison modeled after facilities built in El Salvador under President Nayib Bukele, and has indicated an intention to oppose China, aligning with U.S. Foreign policy objectives.
The victory was publicly congratulated by José Antonio Kast, the President-elect of Chile, who communicated with Fernández via X, formerly known as Twitter, on February 2, 2026. Kast emphasized the importance of strengthening bilateral ties between Chile and Costa Rica, stating, “Our countries have much future ahead and we will function to consolidate the relationship between our peoples.”
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio also publicly congratulated Fernández, vowing to deepen cooperation on issues including narco-trafficking, immigration, and cybersecurity. The Trump administration had openly supported Fernández’s campaign, with Rubio meeting with her in February 2025 and praising her as a “very strong ally of the United States.”
The outcome in Costa Rica precedes elections in Peru, Colombia, and Brazil later this year. Elections are also planned in Haiti on August 30, though their feasibility remains contingent on the country’s security situation and financial resources. The Provisional Electoral Council has stated that elections cannot proceed without adequate security and funding.
The extent to which Donald Trump will attempt to influence the upcoming elections in South America remains to be seen, following his demonstrated involvement in the Honduran and Argentinian campaigns. Pressure exerted by Trump on Venezuela and Cuba could also influence voters, potentially leading them to support or reject candidates perceived as aligned with his policies due to concerns over external interference.
In Peru, presidential and legislative elections are scheduled for April 12, with a potential runoff on June 7. The increase in crime is a central issue for voters in a country marked by political instability, having seen seven presidents in the last decade, including two removed from office by the legislature. According to political analyst Juan de la Puente, the electoral process is unfolding within a context of a “State captured by the Parliament,” with a dominant trend toward the re-election of a “hybrid regime” operating at the intersection of legality and illegality.
A record number of 36 candidates are competing in the Peruvian election, potentially fragmenting the vote and benefiting groups linked to illicit interests seeking to maintain control over political sectors. De la Puente notes a growing divide between a dominant group with economic power and a resistant population, leading to widespread political disaffection, with nearly 50 percent of Peruvians indicating they do not intend to vote.
Colombia will hold legislative elections and inter-party consultations on March 8, followed by presidential elections on May 31, with a potential runoff on June 21. The election is expected to be highly polarized between supporters and opponents of current President Gustavo Petro. Analyst Elisabeth Ungar Bleier notes a large number of candidates lacking distinct proposals, characterizing the contest as a “struggle of egos.” The two leading candidates in polls are Iván Cepeda, Petro’s expected successor, and Abelardo de la Espriella, a far-right candidate.
Violence is also a significant factor in the Colombian elections, with the assassination of military personnel, police officers, and social leaders. Ungar Bleier suggests this could lead voters to support de la Espriella in an effort to avoid a continuation of Petro’s policies. The influence of former President Álvaro Uribe appears to be waning, with uncertainty surrounding the candidacy of Paloma Valencia, representing his political faction.
In Brazil, elections are scheduled for October 4, with a potential runoff on October 25. Even as the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro may be the candidate for the right, the right-wing coalition is currently divided. Current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is considered the frontrunner, with polls indicating a strong possibility of a fourth term, as he will be 81 years old in October.
